Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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542 FXUS65 KPUB 031759 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1159 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry most areas today with spotty critical to near critical fire weather conditions across the valleys where fuels are still mitigated by green up. - Round of showers moves across the Central mountains tonight with upper trough. Nocturnal thunderstorms possible far eastern plains though probability looks low. - Mostly dry and hot conditions are expected for the midweek period. - Rain showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 358 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Round of nocturnal convection has pushed eastward into KS early this morning. Easterly winds have ben advecting higher dew points back westward into eastern CO with some areas of stratus developing across portions of the southeast plains early this morning. It looks drier today with westerly flow aloft spreading drier airmass across the mountains into the adjacent lower elevations and I-25 corridor. A dry line will be lurking across the far eastern plains today, but with less forcing, and moisture, not really expecting any thunderstorm development along it. So a dry day expected with another round of 80s and 90s for the lower elevations and 60s and 70s for the mountains. Some spotty critical to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the valleys and adjacent lower elevations today, though conditions look less widespread than yesterday as winds will be a tad lighter. With green up keeping fuels out of the critical threshold, no fire weather highlights are anticipated. An upper trough will move across the area tonight, spreading a brief round of showers and isolated thunderstorms into the mountains. Best chance of precipitation will be confined to the central mountains but amounts will be spotty and light and quickly diminish towards dawn. This sends another cold front through the plains overnight. Will need to watch eastern plains overnight for nocturnal convection as another low level jet impinges on the southward advancing cold front. HREF keeps convection confined farther to the northeast so pops will remain silent overnight across eastern areas. -KT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 358 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Tuesday - Thursday: For the midweek period, relatively quiet weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will be mostly westerly Tuesday as weak wave passes north of the area, with flow then becoming northwesterly Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds across the four corners region. Forcing will be rather modest during this period, even despite a minor wave passage Tuesday. With that said, weak orographic forcing is expected each day, and highly isolated showers are anticipated each afternoon along the mountains. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the region. Looking at temperatures, the hot pattern continues even despite a minor cold front passage Tuesday. Much of the area will warm to well above seasonal values for mid June. Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend, an uptick in active weather is expected. Northwesterly flow will prevail over south central and southeastern Colorado during this period. At the surface, winds will become more southeasterly to easterly, and allow for better moisture return across the area, particularly across the plains. While forcing will remain lackluster during this period, the modest orographic forcing and increased moisture will allow for more scattered showers and thunderstorms to materialize across much of the region during the afternoons. Along with that, some stronger, to even severe, thunderstorms will be possible over the plains given the expected increase in instability with the surging moisture. Questions do still remain though on strong to severe thunderstorm potential, mostly on how much shear develops. At this time, shear is anticipated to be on the lower side for organized convection, but if a short wave/ripple embedded within the northwest flow can pass over the area, an uptick in shear would be expected, and could help with storm organization. As for temperatures, a cool down is anticipated. Much of the region will drop back down to around seasonal values. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB. Some gusty west-northwest winds are expected during the afternoon, but after the sunsets, primarily a northwest component will take over as a trough passes aloft. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...SKELLY