151
FXUS65 KPUB 190922
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today!

- Scattered showers and storms, a few strong along the NM border
  this afternoon/evening.

- Uptick in thunderstorms over the mountains Thursday and Friday with
  increasing moisture and lift ahead of a passing upper trough.

- The heat returns across southern Colorado with highs above the
  century mark across the Plains by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Currently...

A cooler and moister airmass has moved in over the plains this AM.
Lots of mid/lower level clouds cover the eastern plains at 3 AM. The
front is south of the region attm, and a band of strong storms was
noted just south of the fcst area in NM and OK as I write. Over the
last hour or so, showers have begun to break out over the plains,
with some light steady rain over parts of Baca county. West of the
Sangres, it was clear. Some cooler air made it over into the San
Luis Valley (SLV) earlier as they had some gusty east winds in the
valley early this evening.

Today...

Sharply cooler today. Max temps only expected to be in the 60s
across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region with 70s over
the rest of the plains! These temps are 15 to 20F below normal for
this time of the year. In the interior, however, temps will remain
warm with temps similar to yesterday. As for precip, the overall
best chance of showers and storms today will be later this afternoon
with storms developing over the southern Sangres and then pushing
east late today. Over the rest of the plains, we will see mainly
mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and a few -TSRAs. The
east slopes of the mtns and wet mtn valley will likely see some
instability today and expect scattered storms this area during the
afternoon.

Given the boundary is just south of the area, the best qpf will be
noted along the CO/NM border generally east of the S Sangres.

One region which will see less precip today will be the CONTDVD
region as much drier air is noted over this area.

Tonight...

We will likely see a good chance of scattered showers and storm push
east off the mtns and across the plains this evening into the
nighttime hours, with the brunt of the activity ending by midnight.
Given the general lack of instability, storms are not expected to be
too strong. The only exception to this will be down along the NM and
OK border where better instability will be realized early in the
period and a few strong/marginally severe storms will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Thursday-Friday...Modest south to southwest flow aloft is progged
across the region through the end of the work week, as a broad upper
trough across the West Coast on Thursday, translates across the Rockies
through Friday night. Flow aloft allows for an influx of subtropical
moisture to spread into the region, leading to an increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, especially along and west of the Continental
Divide, where the best moisture is expected to be in place. Increasing
uvv ahead of the passing trough, combined with good orographic flow,
could keep showers and storms ongoing over the ContDvd Thursday night,
with the best coverage of storms expected over and near the higher
terrain once again through the day Friday into Friday night. Latest
models continue to suggest enough cape and shear, especially west of
the Front Range, to support a few stronger storms producing hail to
near an inch in diameter and gusty outflow winds, along with enough
subtropical moisture to support locally heavy rainfall, with the latest
Day 2 and Day 3 WPC Excessive rainfall outlooks indicating a marginal
risk across western Colorado on Thursday, with the marginal risk
spreading into south central Colorado on Friday. Temperatures across
southeast Colorado are expected to warm back to at and slightly above
seasonal levels in the 80s to lower 90s through the end of the work
week, with temperatures over and near the higher terrain at to slightly
cooler than seasonal, with expected increased convection.

Saturday-Sunday...Warmer and drier west to northwest flow is expected
across the region through the
 weekend, with upper level ridging building
back across the southern Rockies. This will allow for temperatures
to warm to above seasonal levels areawide, with enough residual moisture
to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms,
with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain.

Monday-Tuesday...Southern Rockies upper level ridging builds into the
Central Rockies with warming aloft and H5 heights approaching 595DM
leading to highs returning to well above seasonal levels in the mid
90s to around 105F across the southeast Plains, and mainly in the
70s and 80s across the higher terrain. There could be enough moisture
to support isolated higher based afternoon showers, mainly over the
higher terrain, into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain relatively light overnight, and then start to increase during
the early afternoon. Mid level clouds will start to increase during
the day Wednesday, with scattered showers developing within the San
Luis Valley tomorrow afternoon. Confidence does remain low though on
ultimate timing and coverage of showers around the TAF site, with
VCSH conditions possibly lasting all Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With that said though, any showers will be relatively
light, though will be capable of briefly reducing visibility - some
lightning can not be ruled out with any stronger precipitation cells.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected extremely early for this
TAF period, with MVFR conditions developing quickly overnight and
persisting through most of this TAF period, primarily due to low
clouds. Low to mid level clouds will rapidly develop overnight as
moist upslope flow materializes and persist through this TAF
period, keeping the low to mid level clouds in place through the end
of this TAF period, though some minor lifting of clouds is
anticipated during Wednesday afternoon. Scattered pockets of drizzle
to light rain are also expected to develop overnight around the TAF
sites, with a period of steady drizzle/light rain likely during the
mid overnight hours into the mid to late morning hours. Thereafter,
scattered rain showers are anticipated throughout the day Wednesday,
though confidence is low in ultimate timing and coverage of showers,
with VCSH conditions possibly persisting all Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With that said though, any showers will be relatively
light, though will be capable of briefly reducing visibility - some
lightning can not be ruled out with any stronger precipitation
cells. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light during this TAF
period, with occasional sporadic gusts during the afternoon hours
Wednesday, especially for KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH