Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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090 FXUS65 KPUB 132314 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 514 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot today, but front moving across the plains this evening. - Isolated storms, some strong, later today into this evening, especially over the greater Kiowa county region. - Severe storms (winds) possible tomorrow. - Rain showers and thunderstorms expected to push across the plains Friday evening, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible. - Slightly cooler Saturday, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the mountains. - Mostly dry conditions anticipated for the end of the week and through midweek next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Currently... Boundary was pushing across the Palmer Divide early this afternoon, with a bit cooler and moister airmass behind the front. A few convective showers were noted with this boundary. An isolated cluster of storms was also noted over Baca county associated with a sfc trough/dryline feature over this region. SPC mesoanalysis was showing scant values of CAPE along the I-25 corridor region while along the CO/KS border, values were in the 1000 to 1500 range. Effective shear was non existent in front of the boundary while up in NE CO, values were 30 to 50 knts. Rest of Today... Concern is increasing that we may see a few severe storms over the far eastern plain this afternoon. SPC has recently issued an MD discussing the threat for strong gusty winds developing over plains associated with the storms along the boundaries. After the front goes by across our area, shear will increase somewhat and so will CAPE, however the lower level moisture behind the front will likely mix out some, limiting (but not eliminating) the severe storm potential. Will continue to monitor. This evening... Isolated storms may still be ongoing along the border, but believe a majority of the activity should be in KS by this time period. Interestingly, late tonight guidance wants to show a few shower possible redeveloping over the far eastern plains, and believe this is associated with the warm air advection developing in advance of the trough that will affect us tomorrow. Tomorrow... Main concern is the potential for severe storms. Main svr threat will be the potential for strong damaging winds as flow through the column will be relatively unidirectional and relatively strong cold air advection will mover over the plains as the trough axis moves overhead over the deeply mixed airmass during prime heating. Expect a band of organized strong to severe convection will go over us during prime heating bringing the threat of strong to severe storms to the area. I have explicitly mentioned severe storms in the forecast tomorrow given the wind threat (SPC has us "hatched" (G80 mph) in the wind category for tomorrow). /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Friday Night: The end of the work week will start off with some active weather, and become quieter heading into Saturday. A fast moving short wave will be ejecting across the region early Friday evening, bringing a surge of forcing. As this wave races across the area, it will shove rain showers and thunderstorms that blossomed earlier in the day Friday across the higher terrain eastward across the plains. While moisture will be mixed out by the evening hours, modest moisture will remain in place. Given the support from the wave and the minor moisture, a few strong, to possible severe, thunderstorms are possible, with strong to severe winds the primary hazard given the high based nature of thunderstorms and large DCAPE values. With all of that said, as the axis of the wave passes and forcing lessens, along with any diurnal instability lessening, precipitation is anticipated to decrease in coverage by mid to late Friday evening, with dry conditions thereafter for Friday night. As for temperatures, a mild night is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado, with low temperatures dropping to around seasonal values. Saturday: The start of the weekend will be the first day of a downtrend in active weather for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will become predominantly westerly behind an exiting wave. While overall forcing will lessen, minor orographic forcing will continue. Given this, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the mountains during the afternoon, when the best overlap of forcing and instability is anticipated. The greatest hazard from any thunderstorms will be gusty winds, small hail, and lightning. As the day progresses and instability starts to wane during the evening, any precipitation across the area is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate, with dry conditions expected overnight. Looking at temperatures, a "cooler" day is anticipated, though much of the area will still remain above seasonal temperatures for mid June. Sunday - Wednesday: For the rest of the long term period, the quieter weather continues. Southwest flow will prevail over south central and southeastern Colorado. No major synoptic forcing is anticipated with this pattern, and given that, mostly dry conditions are anticipated for the region. With that said though, weak orographic forcing over the mountains may help to initiate a shower or two along the mountains each afternoon. Temperatures during this timeframe will remain relatively hot and above seasonal values, with the hottest temperatures expected Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 510 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today with high based showers possible producing gusty outflow winds. These will be most likely to occur at KCOS so will keep another hour of -SHRA with tempo gusts to 35 kts through 01z. Window for gusty winds should close rapidly after that. A cold front will keep gusty east to northeast winds at KCOS and KPUB through 04z with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Winds decrease overnight but pick up again on Friday ahead of a potent disturbance. This will send a line of high based showers and thunderstorms across southern CO with best chances for TSRA at KCOS and KPUB as it moves off the mountains. Gusts up to 45 kts will accompany thunderstorms though small hail and brief heavy rainfall will be possible especially for KCOS. This line should move east of the terminals by the end of the 24 hour TAF period with clearing skies. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089- 093-097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...KT CLIMATE...STEWARD