914
FXUS65 KPUB 222103
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy/windy and warmer Thursday with critical fire weather
conditions over the Sangres/Wets.

- Isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms possible over
the higher terrain for Friday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return on Saturday
  with chances decreasing into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Breezy and cool across srn Colorado this afternoon, as sly flow has
increased on the plains behind departing bubble of surface high
pressure in KS. Have seen some very modest cumulus build-up over the
mountains at mid-afternoon as lapse rates remain rather steep,
though with very dry low levels, deeper convective development has
been hard to come by. Still a few CAMS suggesting some brief/weak
tsra over the sern plains this evening, so will keep current low
pops in place, though gusty winds/sprinkles and 1-2 lightning
strikes will be all that we can manage from any storms. Overnight,
flat wly low will turn gradually swly and increase into Thu, as next
upper wave moves quickly through the central Rockies. Pattern will
keep breezes going through most of the night, and min temps all
areas will be several degf warmer than this mornings chilly numbers.

On Thu, strengthening swly flow aloft and deepening lee surface
trough will lead to breezy/windy conditions most areas by afternoon,
with gusts of 30-40 mph common. Will upgrade Sangres/Wets Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Thu afternoon/evening as
fuels remain critical below 7500 feet there, but no highlights
elsewhere, as fuels have greened up and are non-critical. Air mass
remains very dry, and will keep pops out of all forecasts, though a
few showers could at least get close to the central mountains toward
00z. Max temps will soar with deep mixing, and expect widespread
70s/80s (near 90f lower Arkansas Valley) at lower elevations, while
mountains get into the 60s/70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

There is GFS/ECMWF/Canadian agreement that a closed upper level low
will move from northeast Wyoming into North Dakota on Thursday night
and into south-central Canada by Friday night. The best moisture and
lift with this system is anticipated to be north of the area by this
period, and thus the forecast is mostly dry in a mid-level zonal
flow through Friday night. The forecast is mostly dry and not
completely dry as an isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out over higher terrain on Friday afternoon.  While
marginal fire weather criteria for wind and min RH is expected on
Friday, green-up has occurred across all of the zones except the
southern Sangre de Cristos and Wet Mountains (Zone 125). Thus, a
Fire Weather Watch was issued for this area for Friday afternoon.

Saturday into Sunday, a broad mid-level trough will approach from
the west on Saturday. The trough axis will cross the area Saturday
night and shift east of the area on Sunday, putting the area in a
northwesterly flow Sunday into Sunday evening. As synoptic scale
forcing moves into the area with this feature, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Saturday into Saturday
night. By Sunday, high pressure will begin to build in from the west
and mostly dry the area out.

Monday into Tuesday, a mid-level ridge will build into the area from
the Desert Southwest. With a surface high moving across the area,
this will limit showers and thunderstorms to mostly the higher
terrain on Monday with moisture on the increase and increasing the
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday.

For temperatures, the forecast aligns with the National Blend of
Models through the long term period. Highs on Friday will be around
5 degrees below normal, warming to around 5 degrees above normal
this weekend and continuing into early next week. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Breezy sw winds gusting
to 25 kts this afternoon/early evening at KALS, then diminishing
this evening. At KCOS and KPUB, s-se winds will gust 20-25 kts
this afternoon/early evening before diminishing. Gusty (25-30
kts) w-sw winds all areas Thu afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ225.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for COZ225.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...PETERSEN