341
FXUS65 KPUB 131738
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and very hot today. Near record to record highs
expected for some locations; Heat Advisories issued for parts of the
region.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly over eastern
plains. Showers/storms may produce gusty outflow winds approaching
60 mph.

- A few storms may become severe over the far eastern plains later
this evening, especially Kiowa County. If this occurs, there could
be hail up to ping pong size, as well as winds up to 70 mph.

- Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected on Friday
afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being strong winds. A
few thunderstorms may have hail and heavy rain.

- Hot temperatures continue through next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Today...

Main concern will be the temperatures today. A well-pronounced upper
level ridge will be moving in over the region today and will result
in very hot conditions at the surface. There are portions of the
plains, especially within the lower Arkansas River Valley, which may
have high temperatures exceed 105 degrees. With near record to
record-breaking max temperatures expected, there are Heat Advisories
in place for the counties of El Paso, Pueblo, Otero, Crowley, Bent,
and Prowers. If you reside in these areas, be sure to take extra
precautions to ensure that you are staying hydrated and limit
strenuous outdoor activities!

Along with the heat, will be the possibility of some isolated
showers and/or thunderstorms developing later in the day as there
will be some mid-level moisture being advected up from the south due
to an upper-level low just off the coast of southern California, as
well as weak instability over the region. Given that these storms
will be high-based with the characteristics of inverted-v soundings
also revealing very high levels of DCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg over
some areas of the plains. Due to this, these may end up producing
very gusty outflow winds with "virga bombs" that could cause winds
to approach 60 mph at times for some locations. There could also be
occasional "heat bursts" again as well, much like there was
yesterday. Most of the high res guidance places a majority of the
convection over El Paso County initially, and then more towards the
eastern plains by later in the evening as there will be a boundary
with weak low-level convergence setting up right along the very
CO/KS border and extending down to the southeastern corner of
Colorado. With this, there will also exist the threat of a severe
thunderstorm over Kiowa County (and possibly Prowers, Bent, and Baca
counties), as there will be the convergence boundary in place by
later this evening, along with very high MUCAPE values just to the
north of the boundary (of nearly 2000 J/kg) and much higher
effective bulk shear between 35 to 40 kts). If a severe storm does
occur over this area, it may produce large hail up to ping pong
size, and gusty outflow winds of up to 70 mph.

Tonight...

Once again, a hot day will lead to a very mild night. Any remaining
shower and possible thunderstorms right along the CO/KS border
should continue to dissipate through the evening and move east out
of the CWA by early tomorrow morning. There could still be some
"heat bursts" continuing on over portions of the plains as a result.
The weak boundary will likely be enhanced by outflow from convection
and will move back towards the west by later in the evening, and may
help to aid in the relief of cooler temperatures, along with high
dewpoints as it does. Skies will eventually become mostly clear with
light winds, which will also help to cool temperatures a bit more,
although it will likely only drop into the low to mid 60s for a
majority of the plains, and may be even closer to 70 for some areas.
For high country, temperatures should fall into the 40s for most
locations, with less in the way of clouds and thus better
radiational cooling.    -Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A strong short wave for late spring will pass over the region on
Friday providing ample amounts of forcing for thunderstorm
development, though the thermodynamic variable of this equation
still has a bit of uncertainty. Most of the models are resolving
between 20-30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear values over the plains, so
there is high certainty for lower-end amounts of shear. The more
uncertain part is the amount of instability at the time of the lift
would allow convection to occur. The lower resolution models are
pretty consistent with >2,000 J/kg of CAPE and widespread strong to
severe convection occurring. However, the higher resolution models
such as the NAMNest and the HRRR both have a lack of strong
convection developing and emphasizes the strong wind risk over the
southeaster plains. My thinking is to agree with the high resolution
guidance as they are trying to better resolve the boundary layer. So
my current thoughts right now are that convection develops over the
mountains around 12pm as the shortwave passes overhead, the storms
will try to strengthen, but will reach relatively dry air at the
surface, remain high based, and will produces wind gusts ranging
from 40 to 60 mph. There will be the opportunity for a few rogue
cells to create some isolated large hail up to 1" and have heavy
rain, but the primary risk will be wind. Thunderstorms should mostly
be in Kansas by midnight, but there may still be some lingering weak
thunderstorms near the CO-KS border.

After this wave passes overhead, flow will be pretty weak through
the weekend and the rest of the long term forecast period
(Thursday). Southwesterly flow is expected to develop aloft early
next week, which creates gusty southwesterly winds at the surface.
The data looks like a meteorological fire weather set-up on
Wednesday, which is sort of strange for the late Spring/early
Summer, especially when temperatures are expected to be in the mid-
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will generally be light most
of this fcst period, however a cool front will push across KCOS
and KPUB early this evening with a brief period of gusty east
winds, then will diminish later this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Due to a strong ridge in place, daily record high temperatures will
be possible today for portions of the plains and San Luis Valley.
Below are the daily record high temperatures and forecast high
temperatures for the following locations:

Location:                   Daily Record High(Year)     Forecast High

Alamosa                     90F (2021)                  88F

Colorado Springs            95F (2022)                  96F

Pueblo 102F (2022) 102F

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-
093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...HODANISH
CLIMATE...STEWARD