994
FXUS65 KPUB 122021
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot tomorrow; Heat Advisories issued for parts of the
   region.

 - Dry conditions expected Thursday night, with the exception
   of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the far
   eastern plains.

 - Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage Friday
   afternoon, especially along and east of the I-25 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Currently...

Ambient temps were in the 90 across all nearly all of the plains at
1 PM. Skies were mostly clear across the larger valleys and plains
and party cloudy over the higher terrain. Some virga showers were
noted over the mtns.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Main concern will be the HEAT for tomorrow. We will likely see quite
a few areas over the plains over 100F with some reading likely in
the 106 to 107 range over some areas especially along the Ark Rvr
valley east of Canon City to the KS state line. Based on this, we
have issued a Heat Advisory for tomorrow for the urban areas
(COS/PUB/Canon City) and along the lower Ark river valley region.
Fortunately, we are only going to see 1 day of really warm temps as
a cool front will be heading our way tomorrow evening. Otherwise, it
will likely be dry across the region through 00 UTC tomorrow, with
only a few virga shower, mainly over the Pikes Peak region.

For tonight, it will remain mild with min temp readings in the 60s
most of the plains with 40s in the higher elevations. /Hodanish.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Thursday Night: Overall, Thursday night will be relatively quiet,
though with activity early on. The ridge from the midweek period
will still be in place, though a weak cold front  from a wave over
the north central US will sag southward during the evening hours of
Thursday. With the ridge in place, mostly dry conditions are
expected across the region. The exception to this will be across the
eastern plains, where isolated rain showers and thunderstorms may
blossom along the weak cold front. Given moisture pooling behind the
front, and modest instability associate with that, a strong
thunderstorm or two is can`t be ruled out, with strong winds the
primary hazard. Temperatures overnight will be rather mild and even
warm for some, as much of the area remains above seasonal value
still, even for low temperatures.

Friday: For the end of the week an uptick in active weather is
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. A compact
short wave will quickly eject over the region from the southwest to
the northeast. This wave will bring an increase in forcing, along
with a modest surge in moisture, though mostly across the eastern
plains. With the rise in forcing and moisture, scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for much of the region,
especially along and east of the I-25 corridor. Along with that,
there is a concern for a strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorm or
two over the eastern plains given the increased support from the
wave and rise in moisture. With that said though, moisture may
become increasingly mixed out during the day, especially given
southwesterly to southerly winds. With the more modest moisture
expected, thunderstorms are anticipated to be more high based, with
large DCAPE values across the plains. Given this, the greatest
hazard is expected to be strong to severe wind gusts. The greatest
coverage of precipitation will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours, when instability will be maximized across the area.
If moisture mixes out less than current thinking, then the risk for
strong to severe storms would increase across the eastern plains. As
for temperatures, another warm day is expected, despite a minor cold
front passage Thursday night. While much of the region will be
cooler than Thursday, slightly above seasonal temperatures are still
expected.

Saturday - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period, relatively
quieter weather is expected. Flow Saturday will become westerly
behind the exiting wave from Friday, with flow then becoming
southwesterly Sunday through Tuesday. While no major forcing is
anticipated during this period, orographic forcing will persist over
the mountains. Given this, isolated showers will be possible each
afternoon along the mountains, though particularly on Saturday when
the forcing will be strongest. Showers will be increasingly isolated
heading into early next week. Looking at temperatures noticeable
fluctuations are expected. Saturday and Tuesday will be the coolest
behind cold fronts, especially Tuesday. Then Sunday and Monday will
be the warmest days, especially Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will generally be light at the
taf sites, but a few high based convective virga events may
cause some locally gusty winds at any of the taf sites later
this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ083>086-
089-093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH