356
FXUS65 KPUB 212046
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
246 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms into early this evening,
  mainly north of Highway 50.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected along the mountains
  each day through most of the long term period, though mostly
  along the central mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Upper wave crossing the state today producing scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms mainly along/north of Highway 50 at
mid-afternoon, with the strongest activity in the Pikes Peak/Palmer
Divide area, where upward motion is slightly better. While 0-6km
shear is around 50 kts, limiting factor for stronger convection
today continues to be rather modest instability, as surface CAPE is
running in the 300-600 J/KG range across most of the area. As a
result, expect mainly small hail and briefly gusty winds of 40-50
mph with the strongest storms late this after/early evening, and
most activity will wind down quickly after sunset. Some snow still
possible this evening back over the mountains above 10000 feet, as
Continental Divide passes are already seeing snow showers this
afternoon. As convection slides east this evening, cold
front drops south through the plains, bringing a brief period of
gusty winds behind the boundary, before subsiding after midnight.

On Wednesday, wave departs with weak upper ridging across Colorado
by afternoon. Given subsidence and drier air mass, convective
chances look low, and cut back pops to just some isolated
thunderstorms over the southeast mountains in the afternoon. Max
temps Wed will drift upward a degf or two at many locations with a
little more sun and slight upward trend in mid-level temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Wednesday Night - Monday: A relatively persistent pattern will be in
place over south central and southeastern Colorado for much of the
long term period. Overall, a large trough will be in place, with
shortwaves swinging around within the broader flow. This pattern
will keep broad ascent in place, along with modest orographic
forcing given persistent southwesterly flow. Forcing will uptick as
the shortwaves pass near and influence the region some, but most of
the shortwaves are anticipated to remain to the north. With that all
said, given the forcing in place, isolated to scattered showers are
expected along the mountains each day, though particularly along the
central mountains, where forcing will be maximized. Along with that,
given the flow pattern in place, showers are expected to
occasionally push off of the higher terrain and across the valleys
and immediate eastern plains areas. Near the end of the long term
period, there are signals of a pattern change, as a ridge starts to
build and push over the region. Ensemble model guidance are in
decent agreement about this pattern change early next week. With the
ridging in place, drier conditions are anticipated to quickly
develop at the start of next week. Looking at temperatures, a
relatively warm stretch of days is expected. Despite the modest
unsettled pattern, much of the region will remain near to slightly
above seasonal temperatures for late May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR the next 24 hrs at all taf sites. VCSH likely at KCOS
20z-23z, with gusty and erratic winds accompanying any showers.
Low risk of a tsra as well, though will monitor radar trends
before introducing a mention in the taf. Briefly gusty north
winds 23z-03z as cold front passes, then speeds quickly drop off
after 03z. At KPUB, vcsh with erratic winds 21z-00z, though tsra
risk is lower here. Gusty north winds 00z-04z, before flow
becomes light and variable overnight. At KALS, shower activity
looks to stay north of the terminal through the afternoon, with
gusty w-sw winds up to 30 kts until early evening. Winds then
diminish after 03z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...