082
FXUS65 KPUB 310542
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the evening, with a
  few severe over the eastern plains. Main threat with severe storms
  will be hail, possibly up to 2 inches in diameter, and strong
  outflow winds up to 70 mph.

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
  tomorrow afternoon (mainly over the eastern mountains) and
  then move over the plains. A few could be strong to severe.

- Strong to severe storms will possible on Friday evening and again
  Saturday afternoon/evening across southeast Colorado.

- Warmer and drier weather remains on tap for the end of the weekend
  into at the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Updated pops based on the latest radar trends. A line of
thunderstorms, some strong to severe, stretches southwest from
near Haswell, back to Timpas. Another cluster of storms is
moving across Huerfano County. The strongest cores will be
capable of producing hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter, and
outflow wind gusts near 60 mph. These storms will continue to
track east impacting the Plains. The environment shows around
2500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 0-6km shear of around 30 kts. That
should be enough to sustain stronger cores through the evening
hours.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Detailed discussion:

Currently and through tonight...

Latest CAMs continue to show progression of a developed MCS right
over the most southeastern corner of Colorado that expands
southeastward and forces back an outflow towards the northwest. This
will allow for an increase of low-level southeasterly flow and
moisture advection, with increasing dewpoints (approaching 60F in
some areas) extending up into the lower Arkansas River Valley by
later in the evening. At the same time, upsloping winds and a
conditionally unstable environment, which will help to initiate
convection over the Pikes Peak Region (PPR) and Ramparts, which will
move off towards the east with mid-level westerly winds in place.
This will eventually interact with the outflow boundary moving up
from the southeast to help intensify the convection as it continues
to move southeastward and over Kiowa County, or possibly further
south if the NAMNest verifies. The combination with the convergence
and conditionally unstable environment becoming more unstable as
will likely cause these storms to become severe. The only caveat is
that shear will be lacking where the brunt of the convection will
be, with better values further south over the far southeastern
plains, and also that there is currently a fair amount of CIN
(capping) which may inhibit intensification. The HRRR still has
storms merging into nearly a QLCS formation as they make their way
towards the CO/KS border. The NAMNest is similar, but further south.
If this comes to fruition, this will mainly become a strong wind
threat, basically from Eads to Lamar if the HRRR resolves this
better, and possibly have some landspouts occur. Although there are
some other high res guidance which suggests that some of these
storms will be more discrete. As the evening progresses, we will
continue to monitor the environment on SPC and determine if this
outflow and the timing will be efficient for further development and
the threat of severe thunderstorms over the far eastern plains.

Some of the storms will be capable of producing hail of possibly up
to 2 inches in diameter, as well as strong and gusty outflow winds
that could reach up to 70 mph, especially if storms merge and become
organized into a linear (QLCS) pattern. These storms will continue
to move off throughout the early morning hours tomorrow, and should
be clear of the CWA by around to 3 to 4 AM. From there, skies will
continue to clear, with temperatures dropping down into the low to
mid 50s across the plains, and generally in the 30s and 40s for high
country.

Tomorrow...

As the U/L trough remains to the north and keeps westerly mid-level
flow in place over the region, along with some recycled moisture and
orographic lifting, thunderstorms will develop again over the
mountains (mainly over the eastern mountains where there will be
better instability). With the steering flow, these storms will
eventually come off the mountains and over into the plains where
there will be better instability and shear, and have a possibility
of becoming severe again, especially as they continue to move
further to the east. That being said, overall there will not be as
much instability tomorrow as there was today, so perhaps the hail
will not be as large and wind gusts not as strong. It will also be
overall a little more stable on the plains with cooler temps, which
will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler from where they were today.
-Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday night-Saturday night...West to southwest flow aloft remains
progged across the region as a shortwave trough translates across
across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies by
Saturday night. The progged increased flow aloft (shear), combined
with enhanced low level moisture within south to southeast low level
return flow across the southeast Colorado Plains, will lead to the
potential for strong to severe storms across southeast Colorado
both Friday evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening.
Specifics on the amount on of instability and shear profiles will
depend on previous days convective debris and outflows, however,
SPC Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks still indicate a marginal to slight
risk of severe storms, producing large hail and damaging winds,
across most of eastern Colorado. Further west, some uvv ahead
of said wave could produce some high based -shra/-trsa west of
the Front Range, with main threats being gusty outflow winds, with
inverted v profiles.

Sunday-Monday...Moderate west to southwest flow across the region
Sunday becomes more northwest Sunday night into Monday, as shortwave
trough translates across the Northern Rockies and into the Upper
Midwest. Latest models continue to indicate a dryline pushing east
into western Kansas Sunday afternoon, with expected breezy and warm
westerly flow pushing into eastern Colorado, with highs pushing into
the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, and mainly 60s and 70s
across the higher terrain. Dry and breezy conditions will create
enhanced fire danger, however, current fuel status remains non
critical areawide. Passing wave send a week front across the area
Sunday night into Monday morning, however, temperatures to remain
generally above seasonal levels on Monday.

Tuesday-Thursday...While models differ on the timing of the upper level
ridging building across across the Rockies, generally warm and dry
conditions remain progged across the area into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of
tonight and into tomorrow morning. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KCOS from 20Z
until 03Z tomorrow afternoon, and from 22Z until 01Z for KPUB. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities, along with lightning and gusty winds will
be possible with any storms that move over or near either station
tomorrow.

KALS...VFR conditions are expected for KALS for the next 24 hours.
Light southwesterly and westerly winds are likely through most of
the forecast period. Some showers and weak thunderstorms will be
possible along the terrain surrounding the station, though chances
of any storms moving within the vicinity are low at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR