265
FXUS65 KPUB 030908
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
308 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
  across the mountains and valleys today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Today brings a busy weather day to south central and southeastern Colorado.
Southwesterly to southerly flow will start to increase in response to a wave just
starting to push over the region. This wave will bring a rise in forcing and support,
along with an uptick in moisture, as modest northward moisture advection takes place
ahead of the wave. With both the increased forcing and moisture, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected  to start blossoming during the afternoon hours
when diurnal instability will be greatest. Showers and storms are anticipated to develop
initially along the mountains during the early afternoon hours, and then push across
the valleys and adjacent plains by the late afternoon hours. Like previous days this
week, a strong storm or two cant be ruled out, with frequent lightning, outflow winds
of 40-50 mph, small hail, and heavy rain being the primary hazards from any stronger
storms. Beyond all of that, clear skies early will become partly to mostly cloudy by
late afternoon as showers and storms develop, with light winds early becoming breezy
by the afternoon, with winds around 20-25 mph. Looking at temperatures, another warm
but seasonal day is anticipated, with the plains warming into the upper 80s to low 90s,
the valleys into the upper 70s to mid 80s, and the mountains into the 50s to mid 60s.

For tonight, relatively quiet weather is anticipated for south central and
southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned wave from Thursday will finally be pushing
over the area. While forcing and support will remain heightened as the wave passes over,
instability will start to wane heading into the overnight hours. Along with that,
richer moisture will start to push eastward as the wave passes. Given all of that,
showers and storms still present from Thursday day are expected to dissipate by late
evening, with dry conditions then prevailing overnight. The exception to this may be
along the mountains, where an isolated shower or two will be possible given forcing
and some moisture remaining in place. Otherwise, cloudy skies will slowly become mostly
clear by Friday morning, with breezy winds lessening to around and less than 10 mph
overnight. Temperatures overnight will be mild and slightly above seasonal values
given modest downsloping winds, with the plains falling into the 60s, the valleys into
the upper 40s to low 50s, and the mountains into mid 30s to 40s.

For Friday, relatively quiet weather continues, though some may experience Mother Natures
version of fireworks (lightning). The wave that brought widespread showers and storms
Thursday will finally start exiting the region throughout the day Friday. Forcing will
start to lessen, and subsidence will start to increase on the backside of the wave. In
addition, higher moisture content will continue to be pushed eastward. Given all of that,
dry conditions are anticipated for much of south central and southeastern Colorado. With
that said though, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the eastern
mountains and I-25 corridor area, given modest orographics persisting, and some moisture
still in place. While no severe weather is anticipated, a strong storm or two cant be
ruled out, with frequent lightning, outflow winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and brief
periods of heavy rain being the primary hazards from any stronger storms. Outside of all
of that, mostly clear skies early will become partly cloudy during the afternoon hours,
with winds remaining relatively light around 10 mph through much of the day. As for
temperatures, another hot July day is expected, with the plains rising into the upper
80s to low 90s, the valleys into the upper 70s to mid 80s, and the mountains into the
50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Friday night...As the upper wave passes to the east, isolated
convection across the Palmer Divide is expected to diminish quickly,
and chancves are good for a decent night for holiday celebrations.
Overnight lows will cool into the 40s for the high valleys, but stay
warm across the plains with upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday...Models are indicating a weaker upper shortwave crossing
the Rockies on Sat, though the source of this is much farther north.
It will force a cool front south, not bringing much cooling but will
bring a wind shift. Just some isolated convection across the higher
terrain through the afternoon will shift to the east into the
evening, becoming more scattered and tapping into both increasing
CAPE along the eastern border as well as increasing bulk shear. SPC
has painted a MArginal area along the far eastern CO plains for
potential severe weather. Plan on high temps in the 80s across the
high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...As the upper ridge builds back into the Desert
SW, the high center is forecast to be located along the NM and AZ
border, with scattered convection chances each afternoon and evening
mainly tied to the higher terrain. Maximum temps both days are
expected to be right at seasonal normals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Center of the upper high mpves north and
parks over the Four Corners, providing for drier and slightly warmer
conditions. Afternoon mt convection will be much more isolated, and
high temps will creep up to slightly above normal.

Thursday...Another upper wave crosses the Rockies, increasing
precipitation chances for all of the area by the evening. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Light winds overnight will increase through tomorrow afternoon as
diurnal mixing develops. Mid to high level clouds will also
increase through late morning and persist through the remainder
of the TAF period. There is potential for showers and thunderstorms
to impact both TAF sites tomorrow afternoon, however, confidence
in occurrence is low, less than 20 percent, at this time. If a
thunderstorm were to impact a TAF site, frequent lightning,
outflow winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and periods of heavy
rain would be the primary concerns.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Light winds overnight will increase through tomorrow afternoon as
diurnal mixing develops. Mid to high level clouds will also increase
through late morning and persist through the remainder of the
TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the higher terrain tomorrow and push across the San Luis
Valley during the afternoon hours. These showers and thunderstorms
may directly impact the TAF site, with frequent lightning,
outflow winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and periods of heavy
rain the primary hazards with any thunderstorms.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO Pueblo
LONG TERM...WFO Pueblo
AVIATION...WFO Pueblo