448
FXUS65 KPUB 060958
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cooler today with high based showers/isolated thunderstorms
   possible over the mountains with spotty very light
   precipitation possible. Nocturnal showers/thunderstorms
   possible after midnight far eastern plains.

 - Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage Friday, with
   strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the eastern
   plains.

 - Showers and thunderstorms expected again Saturday, with
   strong to severe thunderstorms likely along and east of the
   I-25 corridor.

 - Rain showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday through
   Wednesday, with the most widespread precipitation Sunday and
   Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Cold front will push through southeast CO early this morning
bringing some briefly breezy northeast winds which will quickly
shift to the east by afternoon.  This will usher in cooler
temperatures for the southeast plains today (around 5-10 degrees
below yesterday`s Max Temps), while temperatures out west will be
similar to those of yesterday.  Some marginal moisture in northwest
flow aloft within the upper ridge may provide enough instability for
an isolated high based shower/thunderstorm or two across the
mountains, but inverted V sounding suggest little in the way of
appreciable precipitation from these.  Gusty outflow winds will be
the more likely scenario and this should be pretty localized given
sparse coverage.  Didn`t stray far from model blends and guidance
for high temperatures today.

Low level jet increases overnight advecting high dew points 50s and
low 60s northward into the eastern plains after midnight.  High res
models suggest sufficient lift over the front for some isolated to
possibly low end scattered showers and thunderstorms as low level
jet upglides over the surface front. Main risks look like brief
moderate to heavy rainfall as heights aloft under the ridge don`t
really change that much.  If higher dew points advertised from some
of the CAMS models advect into SE CO soon enough there could be
sufficient instability (HREF Mean MUCape up to 1000 J/kg) for some
stronger storm strengths and possibly some small hail.  Will need to
watch how these parameters resolve through the morning runs.  Will
maintain some isolated pops after midnight across most of the far
eastern plains for now. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday: The end of the work week brings the first day of an uptick
in active weather for the long term period. A short wave will pass
over the region along the northern periphery of a ridge to the
south. This feature will help to increase orographic forcing over
the higher terrain. Then at the surface, southerly winds will be
advecting better moisture into the area, though the richer moisture
will remain across the far eastern plains. With the increase in
forcing and moisture, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
blossom during the afternoon hours, initially along the mountains
and then push eastward during the mid to late afternoon. As
thunderstorms push across the eastern plains, strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible given the higher moisture and
instability across this area, with the greatest hazard being severe
wind gusts given the high based nature of the thunderstorms and
large DCAPE values. Otherwise, gusty winds and lightning will be the
primary concerns for any showers and thunderstorms. With all of that
said though, as instability wanes during the evening, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to lessen in coverage and intensity and
dissipate during the overnight hours. As for temperatures, the heat
continues. Much of the area will remain well above seasonal values
for early June. A cold front will drop across the region late in the
day, but will not arrive in time to bring any relief from the day
time heat (though outflow from thunderstorms could bring brief cool
downs and relief).

Saturday: The start of the weekend continues the showery and stormy
pattern. The synoptic pattern Saturday will look rather similar to
Friday`s, with another short wave drifting over the area along the
northern periphery of the aforementioned ridge to the south.
However, at the surface, winds will become more easterly behind the
late Friday cold front, and richer moisture will fill all the way
into the I-25 corridor. With another day of increased moisture and
orographic forcing, along with surface upsloping, afternoon showers
and thunderstorms are expected once again across the region. This
time though, given the higher moisture and associated instability,
along with better shear, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
likely along and east of the I-25 corridor during the afternoon and
evening hours. Storms will initially start off as discrete
supercells, before then possibly merging and growing upscale into
organized lines/clusters. The primary hazards with any severe storms
will be large hail and severe wind gusts, though a tornado or two
will also be possible, especially if storms can remain more discrete
and given modest low level veering winds. Otherwise, gusty winds,
small hail, and lightning will be the primary hazards with showers
and thunderstorms during the day. With all of that said, like Friday
though, as instability and forcing wane, showers and thunderstorms
will decrease in coverage and intensity during the evening hours,
and dissipate during the overnight hours. Looking at temperatures, a
cooler day is anticipated behind the late Friday cold front. Much of
the area will drop to around and slightly above seasonal values.

Sunday - Wednesday: For the remainder of the long term period,
active weather continues, though with a down trend for the end of
the period. The ridge will continue to remain just south of the area
Sunday and Monday, with another short wave pushing across the region
during this timeframe, with the ridge then building back Tuesday and
Wednesday. With the shortwave for the end of the weekend and start
of next week, more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected for much of the area, especially along the mountains.
Along with that, given some instability both days, a strong storm or
two can`t be ruled out. Then for Tuesday and Wednesday, things get a
bit quieter as the ridge builds back over the area. With that said
though, moisture never fully becomes scoured out, and given that,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day, though mostly along the mountains. As for temperatures, they
are anticipated to remain around seasonal values for most of this
stretch, with a warming trend near the end of the long term period
back to slightly above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Northeast winds this morning behind the front at KCOS and KPUB will
shift around from the east with gusts up to 25 kts at both
terminals. KALS will see light winds shift around from the south to
southwest with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon.  High based
showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains
this afternoon, but coverage looks too limited as they move off the
mountains to affect any of the terminals, so forecast will remain
dry with VFR clouds at times.  Winds will become light and diurnally
driven overnight with a stratus deck spreading northward across the
far eastern plains overnight.  This looks to stay to the east of the
KCOS and KPUB terminals with VFR conditions expected to
continue. -KT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue over the mountains and
valleys for the next couple days  which will continue the rapid snow
melt. This will keep elevated within bank flows across streams and
creeks in the mountains and along the upper reaches of the Arkansas
River from Canon City westward. Forecasts do not call for any
flooding at this point, but high flows can be dangerous and make
banks unstable. Caution is urged near waterways. Slight cooler
temperatures may dampen the snow melt some late weekend into early
next week. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT
HYDROLOGY...KT