Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
093
FNUS75 KPUB 271435
FWSPUB
Spot Forecast for Oak Ridge Fire...CIMT 3
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
835 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on June 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected across
the burn site today, with increased available moisture (pwats running
150 percent of normal), along with a minor short wave moving across
the northern Rockies. Storms look fire earlier than normal (as early
as 11 am) with the potential storms to continue through the early
evening. A few storms could be strong, producing hail to near the
size of quarters and strong outflow winds to around 60 mph, with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding across
the burn site as well.
There could be less coverage of showers and storms across the burn
site on Friday, as slightly drier air works into south central
Colorado, with another uptick in showers and storms on Saturday,
associated with a cold front moving across eastern Colorado
Friday night. This front will bring in cooler temperatures
and increased humidity to the burn site, though the increased
humidity will also lead to better chances of strong to severe
storms as well as an increased chance of heavy rainfall and flash
flooding on Saturday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny(63 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 1100 until 1200,
then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 2 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....86F.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South to southeast 3-8 mph until 1100, then south
to southwest 10-15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 1100.
Mixing height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 13 mph until 1700, then southwest
around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1200, then good.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57 62 67 67 68 68 68 69
Weather cov.....ARS ARS CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....SMK SMK RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............80 82 84 85 86 85 84 85
RH..............38 34 31 30 29 30 31 30
20 FT wind dir..SE SE S S S SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 12 12 12 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.13 13 18 18 18 21 21 21
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE S S S SW SW SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3 3 7 7 7 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 8 11 11 11 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 7.5 8.0 7.5 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0
Transp wind dir.NW W W W W W W SW
Transp wind spd.10 9 12 12 12 14 15 14
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100047 60 82 73 82 82 89 73
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy(70 percent) until 0100, then
partly cloudy(35 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms until 2300. Areas of
smoke.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....61F.
Max humidity........51-56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to southwest 5-10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms until 2300.
Mixing height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69 65 61 56 57 58 58 49 39 29 25 22
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............82 81 75 72 70 68 65 64 64 63 62 61
RH..............33 33 40 44 45 49 52 54 52 54 56 56
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.18 18 18 17 17 17 18 18 18 15 15 15
Eye lvl wnd dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.15 10 12 15 16 14 13 14 16 15 15 14
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100036 16 8 11 12 10 9 9 11 11 11 10
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly Sunny until 1200 then Partly Cloudy(50
percent). Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after 1200.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 3.
Max temperature.....86F.
Min humidity........16-21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to northwest 4-9 mph until 1000, then west
8-14 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......2000 ft agl until 0900, then 10500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700. Very good after 0900.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18 15 13 10 13 17 20 24 28 32 35 38
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3
Temp............61 64 71 76 78 81 82 83 85 86 86 85
RH..............56 50 41 34 31 27 25 24 22 21 21 23
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16
Eye lvl wnd dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 2.5 4.0 7.0 8.5 11 11 12 12 11 9.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.16 15 17 18 17 16 15 14 14 13 13 13
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100011 15 39 66 103 123 138 132 136 129 116 103
$$
Forecaster...WANKOWSKI
Requested by...Larry Long
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416811.0/PUB
.DELDT 06/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0