278
FXUS62 KRAH 140104
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
903 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will move NE, well off the Carolina coast
through late Friday. A cold front will then slide southward into the
area Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 903 PM Thursday...

The high clouds associated with a weak shortwave moving through the
SE US and developing coastal low extend as far NW as the Coastal
Plain this evening. They will slowly move east through the night
leaving clear skies.  Probabilistic guidance indicates a low end
chance for some fog/stratus across the far eastern Coastal Plain
counties around sunrise. Lows tonight should be similar to the low
this past morning, ranging from lower 60s north, to mid and upper
60s central and southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 153 PM Thursday...

Although trending a degree or two cooler, Friday is still expected
to be warm across the region. Record temperatures should not be an
issue as highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, where the
daily high temperature record at GSO is 98, 97 at RDU, and 100 at
FAY. Everyone should take cation when working outside Friday and
stay hydrated. While the weak high pressure will be shifting
northeast and offshore, the strengthening low pressure system off
the coast is expected to stay offshore and move NE through Saturday
morning. Although the majority of the precipitation will stay
offshore, rip currents could still be a hazard. While the low is
moving along the coast, a cold front is expected to move across the
region beginning Friday afternoon and reaching the coast by Saturday
morning. While most ensembles shows the front to be dry, a few
outlines do show an isolated shower or storm develop Friday
afternoon over the Triad and Triangle regions. While CAPE is
expected to be less than 100 J/kg, Lapse rates will also be
unimpressive. Any shower that does develop is expected to pass
quickly. Have kept a 15-20% chance PoP in portions of the Northern
Piedmont as Hi-Res models suggest that is where the best chance (if
any) for showers and storms to pop up. Otherwise, as the front
passes the region Saturday morning lows will be muggy in in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

The leading edge of a surface cold front will be working through
central NC Sat morning and is forecast to be draped across the
southern/central Coastal Plain into the Sandhills by 12z Sat. This
boundary will mark the delineation between continued warm/moist
airmass to the south and gradual theta-e drop to the north. The
timing of the front still is uncertain with the slowest guidance
(NAM and NAM3km) keeps the front in the forecast area through the
early afternoon. Available Hi-Res guidance suggest a moderately
unstable (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and weakly sheared (15-20 kts of 0-
6km shear) environment could be in place south of this front. If
this scenario does develop, the best coverage of showers/storms
would be mostly confined to the southern Coastal Plain and eastern
Sandhills where proximity to the front and potential seabreeze
collision would be most probable. Storm motions will by towards the
ESE to SE so any storms the develop should quickly move away from
the forecast area. Temperatures will be tricky and tied to the cold
fropa, but current forecast suggest mid 80s (N) to low 90s (S).

An anomalous mid/upper level anticyclone will drift from Lower MS
Valley over central NC Sun through Tues before strengthening further
as it shifts over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Thursday. Warm and dry mid-level temperatures and surface high
pressure ridging into the area from the northeast will suppress
convection over much of the forecast area. Only chances will likely
be confined to upslope induced convection over western NC that may
leak into the western Piedmont Sun with NW steering flow. Deep layer
flow shifts out of the east Tues onward and keeping upslope flow
pinned to the NC mountains. Temperatures through the remainder of
the extended will be fairly consistent in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s for highs and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period, with a very small chance for a brief drop to
MVFR visbys at KRWI around 12Z Fri. Chance was too low to include at
this time. Winds should generally be light and variable through the
period, possibly calm overnight, although KFAY could see some
lingering 8-10 kts for the next hour or two and again during the day
Fri.

Outlook: Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible Friday
eve/early Fri night as a moisture starved cold front slides south
through the area. Otherwise, generally dry weather is expected. Some
patchy late night/early morning fog or stratus is possible over the
weekend, more likely in the south and east Fri night/Sat morn, then
mainly across the north and west Sat, Sun, and Mon nights/early
morns.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...KC