215
FXUS62 KRAH 080111
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will settle over the region through Saturday,
then drift offshore and weaken early Sunday. A passing disturbance
and approaching cold front will bring unsettled weather Sunday
evening and night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Friday...

Evening observed data, including satellite imagery and upper air
analyses, confirm that the current forecast is on track, with only
small tweaks needed. GOES layer WV imagery shows well the deeply dry
air over and just W and NW of NC, confirmed by 00z proximity and
upstream sounding depicting well below normal PWs. These soundings
also show a pronounced warm/stable layer from 750-500 mb over the
region with fairly high dewpoint depressions through the column,
further reinforcing the forecast of clear skies. With a very light
primarily northwesterly wind tonight, expect lows in the upper 50s
to mid 60s, generally near to a few degrees below normal. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 145 PM: In the wake of the exiting front,
weak high pressure will build into the southern Appalachians through
early Saturday. Good radiational cooling underneath clear skies,
light winds, and a dry airmass will yield a wide range of
temperatures overnight ranging from mid 50s in the cooler locations
to lower/mid 60s in sheltered areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Underneath broad troughiness aloft, weak sfc high pressure extending
across the area early in the day will give way to the development of
a pre-frontal sfc trough over the NC Piedmont by the afternoon and
evening.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail through the afternoon with temps and
humidity levels not that dissimilar to today; highs 85 to 90 with BL
dewpoints in the 50s making it feel 3-4 degrees cooler.

Decaying remnants of a convectively enhanced disturbance will move
into the area during the evening5 However, given the dry stable
airmass in place, conditions will remain dry with only an increase
in cloud cover expected. Lows in the lower to mid 60s, with some
upper 50s possible in the cooler locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

A cold front will push through the region late Sunday night into
early Monday morning. While most of Sunday is expected to be dry,
warm southwest flow with increasing CAPE values in the afternoon
could increase chances of showers and storms just ahead of the
front. Best chance for precipitation Sunday afternoon will be in the
NW Piedmont region. As the front moves across the region overnight a
few scattered showers and storms can be ruled out thus kept 20-30%
PoPs in the forecast. Highs across the region are expected to be
above average with temps ranging from upper 80s in the NW to low/mid
90s elsewhere.

Monday onward becomes a little less certain as long range model
guidance begins to have inconsistencies with timing and coverage as
the next round of disturbances move across the region. Monday and
Tuesday should be mostly dry as high pressure begins to build in
from the NW but cant rule out some afternoon  isolated storms
especially across the south. Highs will be near normal with temps
ranging from the low 80s north to mid/upper 80s south.

By Wednesday, a disturbance begins to develop over the Gulf of
Mexico and Florida, but timing and direction of where the
disturbance moves varies between models. Kept PoPs low for mid to
late week with the best chance in the afternoon in the southeast
with high temperatures near to slightly above average in the mid 80s
to upper 80s Wed/Thurs and around 90 degrees most places by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Friday...

24-hour TAF period: Dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail
across central NC through the TAF period. Skies will be clear until
tomorrow afternoon when scattered mid and high clouds begin to move
in from the west. Light winds (7 kts or less) will become NW this
evening into tonight, shifting to WSW by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: A moisture starved cold front and upper disturbance could
bring some isolated to widely scattered showers or storms Sunday
afternoon into early Monday. NWP model guidance is trending towards
mostly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, with predominately VFR
conditions. However, isolated showers and storms still can`t be
totally ruled out, as confidence in details is low.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Danco/CBL