394
FXUS62 KRAH 061730
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A pre-frontal trough and cold front will move across the area
Thursday evening through early Friday. High pressure will move in
with cooler and drier air for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1048 AM Thursday...

...There is a Level-1 (Marginal Risk) For Severe Storms this
afternoon and early evening...

...Gusty wind is expected to be the primary hazard with the stronger
storms and isolated storms may reach severe limits...

Central NC will lie along the southern fringes of the mid-level
cyclone and associated upper trough moving through the Upper Great
Lakes. The attendant trailing surface front will crossing the area
overnight.

Morning stratus will give way to increasing sun. Strong insolation
within the 67 to 73 BL dewpoints will yield moderate buoyancy by the
afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s NW to lower 90s SE.
The weak band of showers that`s currently moving into the mtns should
intensify as it moves east into the western Piedmont, with a broken
band of showers and storms expected to cross the area between 18 to
03z. While the stronger shear resides north of the area, deep layer
shear over NC of 20-25 kts will pose more of an isolated severe
threat, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat, with the severe
greatest between 4-8 pm.

Highs will be warmer than today, especially across the eastern half
of the forecast area where the later arrival of showers and storms
should allow for some strong heating. Highs ranging from mid 80s NW
to lower 90s SE.

Some isolated showers will be possible overnight/predawn hours
Friday morning as the lagging cold front crosses the area. Lows 65-
70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY and FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

...Lowering humidities and temperatures Friday and Friday night...

Mid and upper troughing will be along the eastern seaboard Friday
and Friday night. Central NC will be on the back side of the trough
with the axis moving offshore. CAA will drive the humidities and
even temperatures down from early June standards. With partly to
mostly sunny skies, highs will reach the lower to mid 80s NW ranging
into the mid to upper 80s east and south. Lows will dip into the 55-
60 range except lower 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 228 AM Thursday...

A persistent northwest flow is favored to be in place through much
of the extended. Embedded in that flow will be the potential for
disturbances within the larger pattern to influence central NC with
rain chances, most favored in the Sun to Tue period.

Sat will feature high pressure in place across the southern
Appalachians. Models then show a cold front reaching portions of the
lower OH and TN valleys by early Sun. Ahead of that, guidance shows
a thunderstorm complex developing somewhere over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley Sat morning in the return flow over the Midwest. Most of the
deterministic models take this energy into the Carolinas Sat night
ahead of the front. We are fairly stable with little if any
instability, but there could be a non-zero threat of a decaying MCS
reaching the area early Sun.

Sun-Wed: Most guidance brings the front on Sat through late Sun into
early Mon. This would appear to be the best chance of showers and
storms with return flow, PW`s returning above 1.5 inches, and energy
at mid-levels tracking in from the TN valley in the NW flow.
However, there remains uncertainty as most of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC show
the greatest instability across GA/SC. The best chance would be in
the afternoon and evening hours. Sun looks be our warmest day in the
extended with above normal highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Model uncertainty continues to grow Mon into Wed. We still appear to
remain in a NW flow to start the week, potentially transitioning to
some weak ridging by midweek. The cold front in the guidance appears
to reach the Deep South early Mon, with perhaps a reinforcing front
Mon night into Tue, before the Bermuda high takes over into Wed.
Nearly all the deterministic models keep the instability axis well
to our south during this time across the Deep South. GFS point
soundings show a subsidence inversion as well during this period.
However, we will be in the NW flow and ensemble guidance still show
embedded energy in the flow to warrant rain chances. The best
chances appears to be Mon into Tue, though confidence is low given
the overall suppression of deeper moisture and frontal forcing. More
diurnally driven showers/storms could return Wed in a more favorable
return flow. Temperatures should gradually trend upward from below
normal in the low/mid 80s Mon to the mid/upper 80s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

24-hour TAF period:

Any lingering 2-3kft MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR
at or shortly after 18z. A fragmented line of showers and storms
associated with a pre-frontal trough is expected to move east
across central NC during the afternoon and evening. The best guess
is for the line and associated brief restrictions to impact KINT and KGSO
between 18-22z, RDU and KFAY 22-02z, and KRWI 23-02z.
Additionally, SW gusts of 18-23 kts will continue ahead of the
convection. In the wake of the convection, expect VFR conditions
overnight with winds becoming W-NWLY behind the frontal passage.

Outlook: A moisture starved cold front could bring some isolated
showers or storms Sunday night. Otherwise, mostly dry VFR conditions
are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...CBL