008
FXUS62 KRAH 190614
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
214 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lift
northeast through Thursday and be replaced by high pressure that
will gradually build into central North Carolina through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM Wednesday...

The bulk of convective activity so far this evening has largely been
associated with the the dampening upper wave/low moving east along
the NC/SC line. In comparison, convection associated with the weak
front draped across the far northern counties has been more sparse.
Only time will tell if this trend will persist, but hi-res model
guidance indicates that both these features will support a
continued chance of isolated to widely scattered activity well into
the overnight hours.

Low overcast will overspread the area from north to south through
the overnight hours. Some patchy fog may be possible, but guidance
has lowered probabilities of fog in favor of mostly stratus.
Overnight lows will settle in the mid/upper 60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...

Aloft, the trough situated over the East Coast should slowly slide
eastward through Thu night, but remain along/just off the East Coast
by Fri morn as high pressure builds over the Plains and MS Valley.
At the surface, a low will meander off the northern mid-Atlantic/New
England Coast Thu/Thu night, while high pressure over the ern Great
Lakes ridges swd along the Appalachians. Meanwhile, the low that has
lingered over the northeast NC coast should shift esewd but linger
just off the central NC coast Thu before moving further southeast
over the Atlantic. Expect generally nly/nely flow across central NC
through Thu night. Some showers may linger into Thu morning over the
Piedmont. There could be a brief lull in activity before additional
scattered showers and isolated storms develop Thu aft, mainly along
lingering surface boundaries. Skies may remain mostly cloudy through
Thu morn and into the aft, which could further limit daytime
heating. Highs should top out in the mid 70s to low 80s, but could
be a couple/few degrees higher if cloud cover decreases earlier that
forecast. While the weather should dry out, there should be
lingering partly to mostly cloudy skies Thu night, with lows
expected to range from upper 50s north to mid 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Overall, the surface pattern for the extended forecast period should
be relatively quiet. At the beginning of the period, high pressure
will be over eastern Canada with a ridge extending to the southeast
across the Carolinas. This will change little through the period
until a cold front approaches the Appalachian Mountains on
Wednesday. However, at mid/upper levels, there will be occasional
ripples of energy moving across the western half of North Carolina.
Friday through Tuesday all show minimal precipitation clipping the
Triad in the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, yet with the exception of
Monday, the deterministic models don`t show any precipitation during
that time period. Having inherited a dry forecast and seeing little
conclusive evidence in the models, am inclined to keep the forecast
dry. However, Will go ahead and put in slight chance pops to the
forecast for Wednesday afternoon across northwestern counties for
the new day 7 forecast with the approaching front. Normal
temperatures for late September are around 80 and 60 - forecast
values are slightly above average for Friday through Sunday, then
near average for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

A line of showers and isolated storms is currently draped along a
boundary across the southern Piedmont and northern Sandhills, but it
has remained stationary and is beginning to weaken. Guidance
continues to show additional showers developing later tonight into
mid morning around RDU and RWI. MVFR or IFR visibilities will be
possible in any showers. Fog potential continues to look limited at
best tonight given the widespread low stratus across most of central
NC, but it can`t be totally ruled out especially in the far south
(including FAY) where the low stratus will be slowest to reach.
Otherwise, the low stratus is resulting in widespread IFR ceilings
across the north (including INT/GSO/RDU/RWI), and they should lower
further to LIFR over the next 2-3 hours. The IFR/LIFR ceilings
should reach around FAY by 9-10z. Ceilings will gradually lift and
scatter through the day, with MVFR by late morning and early
afternoon, and VFR by late afternoon into the evening. After a brief
lull in precipitation, scattered showers and isolated storms are
possible in the south and east (including RDU, RWI and FAY)
starting in the early afternoon, diminishing after 00z.

Outlook: Areas of overnight and early morning fog/low stratus will
remain possible Fri and Sat mornings, though coverage and chances
appear less compared to previous days. Aviation conditions should
largely trend VFR Sun and Mon. Precipitation chances will be minimal
if any through the period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...CBL/Swiggett
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Danco/Kren