047
FXUS62 KRAH 170008
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
805 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep high pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 805 PM Sunday...

With the evening update, kept isolated showers in the southern
Piedmont for a couple more hours as showers have persisted there
longer than expected. Other than that, continued with the slight
chance pops that the day shift put into the forecast for the Triad
through the nighttime hours. Also bumped up cloud cover a little bit
everywhere, although overcast skies are not expected through the
night. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Monday be a near carbon copy of today.

The strong 593 dm upper level anticyclone centered over NC is
forecast to strengthen ever so slightly(594-595 dm). Surface ridge
axis and associated feed of drier, less humid air will remain along
eastern/coastal portions of the Carolinas. Weak lift, moisture
return and destablization on the western periphery of the low-level
ridge axis will continue to support mainly diurnal isolated to
widely scattered showers or thunderstorm over the higher terrain.
Like today, a few of these showers and weaker cells could develop or
move into the far western Piedmont, where gradual lifting of morning
stratus layer will occur. Elsewhere, dry conditions will persist.

Given no appreciable change in airmass, expect comparable temps to
today; highs ranging from mid 80s north/northwest piedmont to lower
90s south.

While the model signal is not as strong as tonight/Monday morning,
low-level E-SELY feed into the area will continue to promote the
development/advection of areas of stratus across central NC,
especially across western and southern NC.  Lows in the mid/upper
60s, with some lower 60s possible over the northern portions of the
coastal plain and piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

The extended forecast period begins with an unseasonably strong mid-
level anticyclone centered over the Mid-Atlantic and deep layer
moisture around 1 inch (50-60% of normal) which will keep conditions
dry and temperatures slightly above normal. Tues night through Wed
the mid-level anticyclone will lift north and strengthen into a
seasonably historic H5 ridge nearly 600dam ridge over the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic. The position of the H850 anti-cyclone will keep
mostly easterly winds off the Atlantic and prevent 20 degrees C
isotherm and the dangerous heat wave pinned west of the Appalachian
mountains into the Northeast with slightly above normal highs for
central NC.

This will begin to change as the anticyclone weakens and shifts ESE
over the western Atlantic and Bermuda region into the weekend. This
will promote southwesterly H850 flow and advection of upper teens to
low 20s degree C temps into the Southeast and southern/central Mid-
Atlantic, favoring increasing temperatures heading into the weekend.
Confidence in finer details remain low in regard to how cloud cover
and/or precipitation chances from an inland surge of moisture off
the Atlantic late week into the weekend will affect afternoon high
temperatures. However, the pattern would support unseasonably
warm/humid conditions during the afternoon and less ability to
recover overnight and lead to a moderate chance for heat related
illnesses primarily for heat-sensitive groups and especially anyone
without effective cooling or hydration readily available this
weekend.

NHC continues to highlight a low chance for an area of low pressure
to form by midweek near the central Bahamas. Guidance remains split
with most surface features confined to GEFS while the EPS/GEPS
showing an inverted trough shifting inland over the Southeast late
Thurs into Fri. Regardless of development, increasing deep-layer
moisture will bring a chance for diurnal showers/storms to the area
with best chances across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
southern Coastal Plain into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. Moist
upslope/upglide has persisted across the Triad terminals today.
Instability trapped below the inversion has led to spotty showers.
These showers are possible to start the TAF period. Afternoon
convection looks to stay confined west of GSO/INT later this
afternoon/evening. The moist southerly flow around the high to our
northeast will favor a better chance of MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus
over GSO/INT Mon morning. Confidence is highest at INT and lesser at
GSO. These sub-VFR CIGs should lift to VFR by the end of the TAF
period. Some showers may also develop at GSO/INT Mon morning to
early afternoon with continued weak instability above the subsidence
inversion.

Outlook: An isolated shower/storm is possible at GSO/INT Mon
aftn/eve. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the remainder of
the period.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Kren