392
FXUS62 KRAH 011636
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1236 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure centered across the area will move offshore
late today and tonight. The high pressure will move out into the
western Atlantic by Monday, bringing warmer and more humid air,
along with mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across
the area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1001 AM Saturday...

Morning satellite imagery continues to show a thin veil of cirrus
moving into the area from the southwest as a trough moves through
the lower MS valley. Following a relatively chilly start this
morning that saw temps fall all the way into the mid 40s in spots,
mid morning readings have already rebounded into the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Aside from increasing high clouds throughout the day, sensible
weather impacts should be minimal. It`ll be another day with below
normal temperatures ranging from around 80 in the west, to the lower
80s in the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain. Late tonight the trough
to our west will arrive in the mountains and there are some
indications of a stray shower in the Triad toward daybreak. Any
showers that make it that far east would be very light with only a
few hundredths of an inch of accumulation. The increasing moisture
coupled with lift from preceding MCVs/convectively-generated
vorticity axis could lead to some spotty light rain over the western
Piedmont towards daybreak. Elsewhere, it should remain dry with
multi-layered cloudiness developing across the area. Not as cool.
Lows 55 to 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

The aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough will continue to
dampen/weaken as it moves east through the southern and mid-Atlantic
states through the period. At the surface, a weak low pressure
trough develops along the lee of the mountains. Weak and difficult
to resolve perturbations may prove to be the primary drivers for
lift and associated isolated to widely scattered weak convection
Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. Daytime heating within the
seasonably moist airmass should lead to weak buoyancy, mainly across
the NW Piedmont, which is where the highest PoPs will be retained
Sunday afternoon/evening. Then overnight, while the deepest moisture
gradually shift eastward towards eastern/coastal NC, model guidance
suggests an isolated/pop up shower is possible just about anywhere.

Highs ranging from upper 70s/near 80 NW to mid 80s SE. Lows in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

A more typical summertime pattern will return to central North
Carolina during the week with diurnally driven thunderstorms through
much of the period as a result of several shortwaves moving through
the region. The highest chances for thunderstorms should come on
Wednesday and Thursday as an upper trough approaches the region.
Went with a small area of likely pops across the Triad on Wednesday
with a consistent model signal that the bulk of the precipitation
will be west of the region that day, but did not have enough
confidence to go with likely pops on Thursday considering the
convective nature of the system and stuck with high chance pops.
With the upper trough moving through, only kept chance pops on
Friday across eastern counties with slight chance pops elsewhere.
Temperatures should generally be seasonable with highs in the 80s,
although Tuesday and Thursday could see some lower 90s in southern
counties. Lows will consistently be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1236 PM Saturday...

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Clouds will
thicken from west to east this evening/overnight and there could be
some stray showers near INT, but unlikely to affect the terminal
directly. Any morning showers will quickly dissipate after sunrise.
Additional showers are possible around INT/GSO just outside the end
of the TAF period. Dry weather expected elsewhere.

Outlook: Moisture will return to the area on Sunday with increasing
chances for showers through the week, especially at INT/GSO. Showers
likely to be diurnal in nature through Thursday with brief periods
of sub-VFR weather possible within heavier downpours.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Leins/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Leins