515
FXUS62 KRAH 281844
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the New England coast tonight. A hotter
and more humid airmass will become established across the area this
weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday bringing the
next chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 243 PM Friday...

High pressure to the north centered just of the New England coast is
resulting in good onshore flow from the west this afternoon. A weak
frontal boundary remains to the south and expected to wobble north
this afternoon and overnight. As such a few isolated showers and
storms developing along the coast could impact the Sandhills region
later this afternoon. Later overnight as the warm front lifts to the
north there is a chance that storms could develop across the region,
with the best chance over the western Piedmont. Low stratus could
develop early morning across the region with pockets of fog
producing lower visibilities in some areas. Easterly flow this
afternoon will shift overnight to a more south-southwesterly flow by
Saturday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the
upper 80s NW to low/mid 90s elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally
be in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again
Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat
indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs
will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm
along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western
Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday
night with little to no showers expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Friday...

A cold front over the Ohio River valley will move southeast across
North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. In advance of the
front, the hot weather will continue along with model guidance
suggesting dewpoints will be in the mid 70s, which will result in
very humid conditions. The highest heat index values are expected to
be in eastern counties, where a heat advisory will likely be
necessary. As the front comes through, the very moist air should
result in high instability for thunderstorms, although minimal wind
through the vertical profile should limit severe thunderstorm
potential. While NBM guidance is going with 80-90 pops in some
locations, especially across the southeast Sunday night, will be
conservative and stick with 70 pops considering models seem to be a
bit optimistic recently with precipitation coverage.

High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes behind the frontal
passage, although scattered showers/thunderstorms remain in the
forecast across southern counties Monday before the forecast
completely dries out for Tuesday. The high will weaken as it passes
across the mid-Atlantic states and over the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday
night, then another cold front could move from the Ohio River valley
into the region late Thursday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be
relatively mild - in the 80s - with a northerly component to the
wind, but as soon as the high moves offshore, the flow will veer
back to the south and the heat will return. Expect mid 90s for highs
on Wednesday and upper 90s Thursday.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

VFR conditions currently across the region with some mid and high
clouds moving over the region. Later this afternoon some isolated
showers or storms could develop around KFAY reducing visbys/ceilings
at times with stronger storms. Up slope flow in the NW Piedmont
could also generate some storms but not until later this evening.
There is a good chance of low stratus and/or fog at all sites early
morning. MVFR or even IFR conditions are possible by 06z at KINT,
KGSO, and KRWI. As the low stratus develops and spreads south, KRDU
and KFAY could see MVFR or IFR conditions by 08/09z. By 15/16z
Saturday morning all sites are expected to return to MVFR.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sun morning
with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-
evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to
mid week next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH