340
FXUS62 KRAH 290738
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
338 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A potentially dangers hot and humid air mass will become established
across the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area
Sunday bringing a chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening. A much more seasonable air mass will arrive with a Great
Lakes high pressure Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 333 AM Saturday...

A Heat Advisory has been issued from this afternoon through Sunday
for the eastern Piedmont, portions of the Sandhills, and Coastal
Plain.

High heat and humidity return.

The high heat and humidity return this afternoon and tonight. High
pressure continues to exit the New England coast this morning with a
SE return flow across our region. The flow will become more S-SW
today and the higher temperatures and humidities will come back
quickly. To go along with the high heat and humidity, there will be
little chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. There is
a small (slight chance) in the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain, and
over the far western Piedmont (closer to the seabreeze, differential
heating, and pre-frontal trough) for possible triggers. Otherwise,
it will be dry.

Highs this afternoon will surge into the 90s in all areas. Dew
points are forecast to rise into the 70s, before possibly some
mixing out a bit by mid-afternoon. It appears that the heat indices
will still likely range between 100 and 105.

We will go ahead with the heat advisory for the portions of the
eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain. The urban areas will
become especially vulnerable around the Triangle and Fayetteville as
temperatures tonight will remain in the 80s for longer than usual.
Lows tonight will struggle to fall below 80. When the nighttime
temperatures stay up in the 80s much of the night, the chances of
heat related illnesses rise. Lows in the rural areas should be in
the mid to upper 70s. This heat wave will peak on Sunday when heat
index values should top out between 105 and 109 in the advisory area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM Saturday...

The heat and humidity peak, but with good chance of thunderstorms to
bring cooling relief late day and Sunday night.

High heat and humidity will be the rule of the day at least until
scattered thunderstorms begin to develop in the early to mid
afternoon. Heat indices may very well be higher Sunday than today if
the clouds/storms hold off until mid to late day (which appears the
case for the eastern areas). Temperatures will get an early start
given the lows expected to be near 80 at many locations. Actual
highs in the lower to mid 90s are expected, with heat indices
possibly 105-109 from Raleigh and Durham south and east through the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Heat indices may top out near 100 in
the normally cooler NW Piedmont region before the chance of storms.

Given the high heat and humidity, instability MLCapes 2000-2500 J/kg
should result increasing the chance of strong to locally severe
storms. However, the stronger flow aloft is generally limited this
far south and southwest. SPC has placed at least the NE quad of our
region in a slight risk, with a marginal risk over the rest of
central NC. The primary threat will be local damaging wind.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday evening, especially from
the Triangle Area south and east. Hopefully, this will bring some
cooling rain for areas that have had little rainfall in the past
month. It will be cooler Sunday night after the front and hopefully
rain pass the region. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...

Aloft, a trough will progress eastward through the Northeast and mid-
Atlantic Mon/Mon night, while the mid-level anticyclone sits over
the ARKLATEX. As the trough moves away from the East Coast, the high
will once again build into the region from the west, sitting over
the TN Valley/Deep South Tue and Wed. A series of northern stream
s/w disturbances will track eastward through the northern CONUS Tue
through Fri, with each successive s/w slowly suppressing the high
southward. However, the high should generally remain over the
Southeast US through Fri. At the surface, the cold front should be
through NC Mon morning, with high pressure ridging into the area in
its wake from a high moving eastward through the Great Lakes. As the
high continues eastward through the Northeast and offshore Tue/Tue
night, it will continue ridging southward into central NC. Once the
high moves out over the Atlantic, a lee trough will develop, with
swly flow and the advection of warm, moist air into the area taking
over once again. Temperatures may actually be near to slightly below
normal Mon and Tue, but once the warm advection commences on Wed,
they will quickly rise back above normal Wed and remain above to
well above normal through the end of the week. As for rainfall,
aside from some possible lingering showers/storms in the east on
Mon, the next best chance for appreciable rainfall looks to be Fri
night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 132 AM Saturday...

IFR stratus is likely to develop at all terminals late tonight/early
Saturday morning.

Any lingering stratus should lift to VFR by late morning/early
afternoon. After which, a few isolated showers/storms could impact
KINT/KGSO this afternoon. However, coverage looks limited and mostly
confined to the mountains.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sunday
morning with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly
afternoon-evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected
early to mid week next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
NCZ024>028-040>043-076>078-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...Badgett/Luchetti