717
FXUS62 KRAH 151306
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
906 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move south of central North Carolina
early today, then stall across South Carolina tonight and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 906 AM Saturday...

Little change to the going forecast today and tonight. The surface
cold front based on surface observations and satellite is largely
through much of central NC, though perhaps still moving through
Sampson County. The guidance takes the front south into SC this
afternoon and evening, then lingers the front aross this region
overnight into Sunday morning. Mesoanalysis still shows some upper
60s and low 70s dewpoints across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills,
and southern Coastal Plain this morning. This along with a sea-
breeze developing later this afernoon should favor some low-end
isolated storms. We did increase the northern extent of this chance
mainly over the aforementioned regions, but coverage should be
rather limited given the latest 12z HRRR. The NAM NEST largely the
only CAM which had the most coverage. Dewpoints should be lower
today, especially over the northern Piedmont with upper 50s to lower
60s. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tonight, lows should
dip closer to normal into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

Mid-level ridging will start to build along the east coast Sunday.
At the sfc, Saturday`s cold front will remain stalled to our south.
As such, mostly dry and hot conditions will persist on Sunday as
temps rise again up into the upper 80s/lower 90s. Afternoon
convection should largely be confined to the upslope mountain areas.
However, a few isolated cells could trickle in the far western
Piedmont late afternoon. Overall though, it should be quite dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

The extended period will be largely warm and dry with no significant
frontal passages, as central NC is under the influence of an
anomalous mid/upper anticyclone that will continue to strengthen,
from 594 dam at 500 mb to as much as 600 dam by midweek. Latest
guidance is in pretty good agreement on the placement of the
anticyclone, with the 00z ECMWF and GFS keeping it centered over our
region on Monday before drifting it to the northern Mid-Atlantic and
New England from Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance then weakens it
slightly but drops it back south to the southern mid-Atlantic coast
on Friday. At the surface, high pressure initially centered off the
New England coast early in the week will slowly drift south closer
to Bermuda by late week, extending west into central NC. This will
keep the low-level flow over central NC largely from the SE through
the period.

Dry air and subsidence from the strong ridging both aloft and at the
surface should really suppress any convective development through
the period. The main effect in our region from the SE flow should
just be some clouds each afternoon, particularly in the west. A few
upslope showers and storms may develop each afternoon over the
Appalachians, but easterly flow aloft should help pin them close to
the mountains, which is backed up by the latest ensemble guidance.
The best chance of any drifting east into our western Piedmont is
Monday when the mid/upper anticyclone is directly overhead and the
flow aloft is weak, but still not enough confidence for any POPs at
this time. The ridge may start to break down some by late week, but
with the latest guidance bringing it farther south and closer to our
region than before, maintain a dry forecast through the period other
than slight chance POPs in the far SE on Friday.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the period, with
highs generally in the lower-to-mid-90s and lows in the mid-to-upper-
60s. The good news is models seem in pretty good agreement there
will be enough mixing to keep dew points from getting too
oppressive, generally lower-to-mid-60s. This will keep heat indices
each day very close to the actual air temperatures. Still, with such
an extended period of warm temperatures, basic heat precautions
should be made, including staying hydrated and taking frequent
breaks if you have to be outside in the hottest part of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 643 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period. A backdoor
cold front will continue to push through this morning. The passage
should be dry, with a brief period of nly sfc gustiness (up to 15
kts) through early afternoon. Sfc flow will subside through the
later afternoon period.

Outlook:  Some early morning stratus could be possible especially at
KINT/KGSO Sunday and Monday mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti