092
FXUS62 KRAH 150606 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
203 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will cross central North Carolina this
morning, then stall well to our south and east through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 918 PM Friday...

The front remained well to our west and north this evening with pre-
frontal trough over central NC. There were hardly any clouds to be
found at mid-evening with temperatures in the 80s. It appears we can
just about eliminate POP in all but the NE Coastal Plain. There is
moisture convergence and pooling around Rocky Mount, Tarboro,
Halifax, to near Smithfield. Dew points were in the lower to mid 70s
there. Elsewhere, the dew points were in the mid 60s to around 70.
The latest radar indicated the closest shower/storm to our region
was the isolated shower NW of Mount Rodgers in SW Virginia. The HRRR
had shown some development into NW North Carolina by mid-late
evening, but has since backed off that. Instead, it is focusing some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area of moisture
pooling along the trough over the NE Coastal Plain around midnight.
The MLCapes were only around 1000 j/kg there, so it is not expected to
be exceptionally strong. Otherwise, the front will move through late
tonight. Lows will be warm, in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Tonight`s cold front should be just exiting the forecast area to the
southeast tomorrow morning, but the front is supposed to linger
along the coastline through the daytime hours. The entire forecast
area should be dry into the early afternoon, but it appears that by
mid afternoon, some thunderstorms should begin to fire along the
front again. Models are showing a rather tight gradient of where the
storms could occur, and right now, it appears that only portions of
Sampson County could receive rain in our area, with the rest of the
precipitation remaining to the southeast. However, if the front
hangs up a little bit farther to the northwest, then the pops may
have to be expanded northwest into Cumberland and Wayne counties or
farther. The front will not bring a major change in air mass - high
temperatures along with dewpoints on Saturday should each come down
a couple degrees. Still, most southern counties should reach the
lower 90s, with mid to upper 80s expected for highs elsewhere. The
chance for thunderstorms should come to an end with sunset, and the
reduction in low temperatures will be more noticeable than the drop
in high temperatures - areas in the northeast could possibly drop
into the upper 50s, but nearly all locations will have lows in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Long term period will be warm and dry as upper level ridge anchors
over the Mid-Atlantic region though the week. At the surface, high
pressure will move off the New England coast on Sunday and linger
over the northern Atlantic into midweek, extending into Central NC
keeping warm dry air over the region. Surface flow will generally be
from the south to southeast most of the week which will strongly
influence above normal temperatures. By mid to late week as high
pressure influence weakens, a coastal trough could develop along the
coast resulting in some afternoon isolated showers and storms in the
far SE portion of the FA. Thus, have a 15-20% PoP for Thursday and
Friday afternoon in the SE areas close to the coast. Temperatures,
as mentioned before, will be above normal with highs each day in the
low to mid 90s. The only exception is Sunday where the NW region
could see some cloud coverage from possible shower activity in the
the higher mountains, where high temperatures could range from mid
to upper 80s over the Piedmont region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 203 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period. A backdoor
cold front will push through mid-late this afternoon. The passage
should be dry, with a brief period of nly sfc gustiness (up to 15
kts) through early afternoon. Sfc flow will subside through the
later afternoon period.

Outlook:  Some early morning stratus could be possible especially at
KINT/KGSO Sunday and Monday mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Badgett/Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti