632
FXUS62 KRAH 181746
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
146 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas
through much of this week. Moisture will increase across the area
late this week into this weekend, bringing some increased rain
chances to the Sandhills/Southern Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...

Broad ~1030 mb surface high pressure centered south of the Canadian
Maritimes will continue to extend SW into the Mid-Atlantic through
tonight. Looking aloft, water vapor imagery shows a large area of
dry air along and east of the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic coasts.
These below-normal PW values will gradually get advected into
central NC by deep (but weak) easterly flow around an anomalous
mid/upper anticyclone centered just to our north. Thus the broken
stratocumulus across roughly the western half of our region will
push to our west through this afternoon and get replaced by mostly
sunny skies. With similar low-level thicknesses to yesterday, high
temperatures should again be in the upper-80s to lower-90s. Dry air
aloft and good boundary layer mixing beneath a strong inversion at
750-800 mb will help dew points decrease to the lower-60s in many
places this afternoon, with even some upper-50s possible. So while
it will be hot, heat indices will be very similar to the air
temperatures. Lows tonight will again be in the mid-to-upper-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 106 AM Tuesday...

The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to deepen across the mid-
Atlantic/northeast US on Wednesday, with heights peaking 2 to 3
standard deviations above climatology. A stream of drier air will
continue to advect across our area, as PWAT remains near ~70 to 80 %
of normal. As such, dew points will once again mix out into the
lower 60s Wednesday afternoon.  Daytime highs will once again max
out in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

...Increasing Heat Risk Developing Over the Weekend and Into Early
Next Week...

The anomalously strong upper level anticyclone over the region will
begin to deamplify/flatten, while building westward over the
weekend, so much so that a weak northern stream trough influence
could bring some decent rain chances to the area by Sunday and into
early next week. Downstairs at the surface, high pressure off the
northern mid-Atlantic will shift south to over Bermuda by the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure over the SW Atlantic
will move westward towards the Florida/Georgia coast on Friday.

The main weather headlines will be in the intensifying heat,
especially over the weekend and continuing into early next week.
Low-level thicknesses and humidity will steadily rise as the low-
level flow becomes increasingly southerly. By Sunday, highs are
forecast to reach the mid/upper with BL dewpoints of 70-75 becoming
more prevalent across central NC, which will help heat indices to
rise into the 100-105 F range. This level of heat will affect anyone
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

In terms of rain chances, expect little to no impacts from the weak
area of low pressure moving ashore Florida/Ga. Aside from some
isolated seabreeze showers/storms across the far SE zones Friday and
Saturday afternoons, mostly dry conditions will persist through
Saturday. Rain chances should begin to increase Sunday and
especially Monday with the approach of the northern stream trough
and attendant front from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours, as any
lingering stratocumulus this afternoon in the west remains above the
VFR threshold and clears out by this evening. More stratocumulus is
expected tomorrow morning and afternoon. A brief MVFR ceiling can`t
be entirely ruled out tomorrow morning, particularly south and east,
but don`t have enough confidence to include mention of it in the
TAFs at this time. Winds will be light (around 7 kts or less) and
generally from the east through the period.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions will persist through Friday.
Moisture and a slight chance for showers will return in the far SE
on Saturday, and areawide on Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Danco