998
FXUS62 KRAH 101715
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest and north today
through Wednesday, then move off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM Monday...

Minimal changes made with the morning update. The frontal boundary
has moved south of the region, although a good amount of mid to high
level clouds are currently in place. There is a noticeable gradient
in dewpoints, with values in the mid 50s across the Triad and
Triangle, although values remain in the 60s east of I-95. The drier
air will eventually push into all locations, also allowing skies to
clear. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out across southern
counties, although it appears nearly all rain will remain to the
south of central North Carolina. After widespread highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s yesterday, expect highs in the mid 80s with less
humidity. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in the north to
the mid 60s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Another day of cooler temperatures and lower relative humidities.

Weak low pressure will be exiting the mid-Atlantic coast with high
pressure building in from the Midwest Tuesday morning. CAA during
the day will lead to a day with slightly below normal temperatures.
Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s with partly sunny skies. Dew
points and relative humidity values will remain lower than normal,
as well. This will continue the trend of comfortable conditions for
at least this one more day. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

The extended forecast continues to trend drier, along with hot and
humid conditions for the late week period into at least the first
half of the weekend. The best chance of showers or storms may not be
until the weekend, and even then, chances are low/uncertain.

Wednesday we will see high pressure over the area that will shift
offshore later in the day and largely remain out over the western
Atlantic into at least Sat. Aloft, WNW flow will be in place,
followed by ridging over the central/southern Plains shifting east
into the region by the latter part of the weekend. Somewhat still
comfortable weather Wed in the mid/upper 80s will transition to more
hot and humid weather to close out the week and start Sat with low
to mid 90s as low-level thicknesses rise some 30 m above average.
The NW flow could favor some convective complexes over the Great
Lakes Thu/Fri that could impact the lower OH valley, but with
ridging over us we appear sheltered from this activity. There could
be some diurnal showers/storms late in the week tied to the sea-
breeze or lee surface trough over the Piedmont, but there is not
much deep forcing in the guidance to warrant more than slight
chances at the moment given ridging in place.

Over the weekend, models are in decent agreement that a cold front
could approach late Sat and perhaps linger over the area or move
through Sun. This period would appear our best chance of some
storms, but even then, the front could pass through dry as most of
the mid-level energy remains to our north. For now, have low end
chances for Sat and Sun. The uncertainty with the front Sun limits
confidence on highs, but for now we trended a little lower than Sat
with upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. Although there are some diurnal cumulus clouds around, much
drier air behind a front should minimize the moisture for any
ceiling/visibility restrictions. Winds should remain around 5 kt
from the northwest.

Outlook: There are no restrictions through the outlook period, with
the next (slight) chance for precipitation coming on Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Green