081
FXUS62 KRAH 210753
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
352 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will track southeast through the Mid
Atlantic region late today and into tonight. A back-door cold front
will move south through the area late Sunday followed by surface
high pressure extending south into the area through much of the
upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Saturday...

Today: Underneath NW flow aloft, weak sfc high pressure across the
area will move offshore late in the day. Morning fog will burn off
quickly with mostly sunny skies for much of the day as afternoon
highs generally top out in the mid 80s. With 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
forecast/maximized across the lee of the southern and central
Appalachians, isolated convective rain chances should largely remain
over the higher terrain.

This Evening and tonight: A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough
is forecast to move SE across the Northeast and down the mid-
Atlantic coast through early Sunday. There is growing model
consensus that weak impulses and increasing upper jet divergence
ahead of this feature could support a cluster of showers and storms
over VA that could propagate southeast into central NC during the
evening and overnight hours. While, unfavorable diurnal timing
should limit severe threat, deep layer shear of 30-35 kt is
sufficient to support a non-zero wind threat, mainly across the
northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain counties, before
weakening. Lows in the mid 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Saturday...

Central NC will remain in the NW flow aloft between the upper ridge
centered over the western GOM/lower MS Valley and the upper trough
moving out into the western Atlantic. A back-door cold front is
forecast to work it`s way south through the area during afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will warm nicely ahead of the front,
especially across central and southern portions of the forecast
area. Highs ranging from lower 80s NE to upper 80s/near 90 south.

Isolated showers/storms will be possible as the front slips south
through the area with slight rain chances potentially lingering into
Sunday night as shortwave wave impulses spread in from the west
within a mid-level plume of enhanced moisture. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

Warm with isolated showers to start the week...

A trough brings a bit cooler temperatures late week, then
potentially wet weather again next weekend.

Ridging will build in from the Tennessee Valley region early in the
week, with a surface high pressure extending down the eastern
seaboard from eastern Canada. A weak backdoor front is expected to
move to southern NC and potentially stall Monday keeping the
southern tier in the 80s both Monday and Tuesday. Highs in the mid
70s to around 80 are favored over the northern and northeastern
sections. There is only a slight to low chance of mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms south and northwest Monday. The chance of
mainly afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms should
return to most areas Tuesday as the upper ridge moves east.

Wednesday into Thursday, models have slowed the cold front down a
bit with the 12z/Thursday cold front position potentially still over
western NC. This occurs as troughing develops from the
Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians by the weekend. The
cold front is expected to push to the coast by Friday This would
favor the best chance of showers/storms Wednesday into Thursday
(capped POP for now at 40-50 percent), and highest during the PM
hours. POP would be lower behind the front Friday along with
with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 by
Friday and Saturday. Some lows will dip into the 50s over the north
and west.

An important note late week into the weekend, NHC is tracking the
potential development of a tropical depression (60 percent chance of
formation) over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of
Mexico late next week. If something were to form, its energy could
get pulled northward into the Deep South by the aforementioned
trough next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Saturday...

Dry conditions are expected overnight. However, fog and stratus
could develop at all TAF sites between ~08 and 13Z Saturday morning.
It does appear that KRWI may have the best chance for dense fog.
Fog and associated sub-VFR restrictions should lift and dissipate
~13z with VFR conditions expected through the late afternoon. A
cluster of showers and storms developing upstream across the
southern mid-Atlantic could progress south into the area from the
between 00 to 06z, potentially resulting in a period of sub-VFR
restrictions, especially across the northern TAF sites(KINT, KGSO,
KRDU, KRWI).


Outlook: VFR conditions should generally prevail through mid-week,
with the exception of sub-VFR fog/stratus each morning. Light rain
or showers will be possible each day but those details remain fairly
uncertain at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...cbl
NEAR TERM...cbl
SHORT TERM...cbl
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...cbl/KC