Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
047 FXUS62 KRAH 170008 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 805 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Deep high pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 805 PM Sunday... With the evening update, kept isolated showers in the southern Piedmont for a couple more hours as showers have persisted there longer than expected. Other than that, continued with the slight chance pops that the day shift put into the forecast for the Triad through the nighttime hours. Also bumped up cloud cover a little bit everywhere, although overcast skies are not expected through the night. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday... Monday be a near carbon copy of today. The strong 593 dm upper level anticyclone centered over NC is forecast to strengthen ever so slightly(594-595 dm). Surface ridge axis and associated feed of drier, less humid air will remain along eastern/coastal portions of the Carolinas. Weak lift, moisture return and destablization on the western periphery of the low-level ridge axis will continue to support mainly diurnal isolated to widely scattered showers or thunderstorm over the higher terrain. Like today, a few of these showers and weaker cells could develop or move into the far western Piedmont, where gradual lifting of morning stratus layer will occur. Elsewhere, dry conditions will persist. Given no appreciable change in airmass, expect comparable temps to today; highs ranging from mid 80s north/northwest piedmont to lower 90s south. While the model signal is not as strong as tonight/Monday morning, low-level E-SELY feed into the area will continue to promote the development/advection of areas of stratus across central NC, especially across western and southern NC. Lows in the mid/upper 60s, with some lower 60s possible over the northern portions of the coastal plain and piedmont. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... The extended forecast period begins with an unseasonably strong mid- level anticyclone centered over the Mid-Atlantic and deep layer moisture around 1 inch (50-60% of normal) which will keep conditions dry and temperatures slightly above normal. Tues night through Wed the mid-level anticyclone will lift north and strengthen into a seasonably historic H5 ridge nearly 600dam ridge over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The position of the H850 anti-cyclone will keep mostly easterly winds off the Atlantic and prevent 20 degrees C isotherm and the dangerous heat wave pinned west of the Appalachian mountains into the Northeast with slightly above normal highs for central NC. This will begin to change as the anticyclone weakens and shifts ESE over the western Atlantic and Bermuda region into the weekend. This will promote southwesterly H850 flow and advection of upper teens to low 20s degree C temps into the Southeast and southern/central Mid- Atlantic, favoring increasing temperatures heading into the weekend. Confidence in finer details remain low in regard to how cloud cover and/or precipitation chances from an inland surge of moisture off the Atlantic late week into the weekend will affect afternoon high temperatures. However, the pattern would support unseasonably warm/humid conditions during the afternoon and less ability to recover overnight and lead to a moderate chance for heat related illnesses primarily for heat-sensitive groups and especially anyone without effective cooling or hydration readily available this weekend. NHC continues to highlight a low chance for an area of low pressure to form by midweek near the central Bahamas. Guidance remains split with most surface features confined to GEFS while the EPS/GEPS showing an inverted trough shifting inland over the Southeast late Thurs into Fri. Regardless of development, increasing deep-layer moisture will bring a chance for diurnal showers/storms to the area with best chances across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 110 PM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period. Moist upslope/upglide has persisted across the Triad terminals today. Instability trapped below the inversion has led to spotty showers. These showers are possible to start the TAF period. Afternoon convection looks to stay confined west of GSO/INT later this afternoon/evening. The moist southerly flow around the high to our northeast will favor a better chance of MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus over GSO/INT Mon morning. Confidence is highest at INT and lesser at GSO. These sub-VFR CIGs should lift to VFR by the end of the TAF period. Some showers may also develop at GSO/INT Mon morning to early afternoon with continued weak instability above the subsidence inversion. Outlook: An isolated shower/storm is possible at GSO/INT Mon aftn/eve. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...Kren