244
FXUS65 KREV 260947
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
247 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Moisture decreases as west to northwest winds bring drier air
  into the region through Thursday. Critical fire conditions
  today, with choppy lakes as well.

* Southwest winds pick up again Saturday and Sunday with dry air
  in place. Another round of rough lake waters and heightened fire
  weather concerns.

* Signals for 4th of July are pointing towards warming
  temperatures, typical afternoon breezes and very low chances
  for any storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Overnight radar depicts showers across Lassen, Modoc and
  northern Washoe counties beginning to taper and move eastward.
  Water vapor imagery on GOES-18 shows an intrusion of upper to
  mid-level drier air working into the region as the monsoonal
  moisture from yesterday moves over the Great Basin. A neutrally
  tilted trough swinging toward the Pacific Northwest will help
  sweep the moisture eastward, leaving us with a drier airmass for
  today, and especially by Thursday. This incoming low pressure
  system will bring gusty southwest winds today that will become
  northwesterly for Thursday. For today, we see a 40-70% chance
  for wind gusts to exceed 35 mph over west- central Nevada which
  brings critical fire weather conditions to the area. Lakes will
  also be choppy today, prompting Lake Wind Advisories for area
  lakes in western Nevada.

* Another trough approaches for the weekend, bringing with it
  another round of breezy west-southwest winds, which will
  reintroduce elevated fire weather concerns as well as choppy lake
  waters.

* A ridge builds back over the West for the first week of July,
  with a return to warming temperatures and low chances for
  storms. There are signals for yet another weekend trough to
  visit, but confidence is low due to ensemble discrepancies.
  HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* West-southwest winds will increase this morning across western
  Nevada, bringing gusts of 25-35 kts this afternoon. Otherwise,
  VFR conditions for today`s flights outside of isolated storms
  near the White Mts.

* Thursday winds will become northwesterly, but gusts will be
  25-30 kts over western Nevada valleys. HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Yesterday`s round of convection produced lightning with wet
  storms over Mineral and Churchill counties. Elsewhere, in
  Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe counties, faster moving, but
  isolated thunderstorms also produced lightning that was in
  relatively drier storms. These may have created new fire starts
  that may holdover and become influenced by today`s incoming
  west-southwesterly breezes.

* Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the desert areas of
  northeast CA, east of US-395, in addition to portions of
  northwestern Nevada today.

* While minimum RH values will be a bit higher than the
  "traditional" Red Flag 15% mark, given the state of the lower-
  elevation fine fuels and the anticipated 35-45 mph WSW wind gusts,
  any new fire starts would easily carry. The other concern would be
  the potential for new ignitions from thunderstorms yesterday.

* Winds to turn NW Thursday behind a cold front with gusts of
  20-30 mph across the area and minimum RH values in the 8-12%
  range outside of the forests. Localized critical conditions are
  once again expected. -Dawn/HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ420.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ003-004.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ423-458.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening CAZ270-278.

&&

$$