Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
313 FXUS65 KREV 060925 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 225 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot weather with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue in store for the region. Afternoon temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above average with a moderate to locally major heat risk over the next couple of days. Any afternoon storm will be capable of producing gusty winds and periods of heavy rain through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level ridge remains in the area which will continue the first heat wave of the season. Afternoon temperatures will continue to be 10-20 degrees above normal through Saturday. Therefore, expect daytime highs in the mid-upper 90s NV valleys, mid 80s to lower 90s northeast CA, and 80s for Sierra communities. We still have a decent chance of reaching 100F degrees in multiple locations in western NV valleys today (20-40%, higher in eastern Churchill Co). However, the probability of exceeding 100F comes down for the weekend with generally a 10-20% for the lowest NV valleys in the basin. The approach of a weak trough to the region on Sunday will bring some relief, but the drop in temperatures will be minor as we remain generally 5-10 degrees above normal for June. The upper ridge is reestablished around Tuesday and Wednesday next week although there is some divergence among models. The trend appears to indicate warmer temperatures per the NBM guidance, even with the spread of likely temperatures. Anyway, it looks like summer time weather is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, we continue to have afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day under the "dirty ridge." This ridge will help keep convection from reaching severe thresholds, but we are still expecting gusty winds up to 40 mph and periods of heavy rain. The best chances for convection will be today and tomorrow mainly over the Eastern Sierra and extending to the northeast into the basin (Mineral/Churchill/Pershing Co) with a 20-40%. However, most of the area has a 10-20% chance of storms. So, don`t be surprised if you see a storm near you. Storm chances tomorrow decrease about 10% areawide as the moisture in the area starts to be pushed out east as the shortwave trough gets closer to us. A drier airmass beyond Saturday appears to bring down the possibility of showers and thunderstorms to below 10%. However, seeing how models have been behaving this week, I would not rule out the development of storms each afternoon into mid-week next week, especially for the Sierra and vicinity. -Crespo && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions expected through tomorrow afternoon. Periods of MVFR conditions are possible with a 10-30% chance of SHRA/-TSRA due to VIS reductions between 20-4Z. Some mountain obscurations are possible too mainly in the Sierra. Winds will be light and VRB in the morning and overnight, then become generally from the west with speeds 5-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts between 20-4Z. Gusty and erratic winds are likely near -TSRA. Density altitude concerns persist into the weekend. -Crespo && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-005. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ004. CA...None. && $$