445
FXUS65 KREV 072044
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
144 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

The early season heat will decrease a few degrees each day over
the weekend and into early next week before rebounding back up
around the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. There will be low chances
for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend with the best chances expected south of US-50.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Temperatures: Our early season heat will peak this afternoon
  before temperatures begin tapering down a few degrees this
  weekend. Highs across W.Nevada will reach into the upper 90s
  once again this afternoon with mid-90s by Saturday and then low
  90s Sunday and Monday. This will put Sierra valleys in the
  upper 70s to low 80s vicinity. Expect moderate heat risks to
  continue through the weekend.

* Thunderstorms: Chances for thunderstorms will remain
  concentrated mainly across central and eastern Nevada this
  afternoon as a mid-level dry intrusion pushes through the
  region. Storm chances increase again on Saturday and Sunday in
  the eastern Sierra and western NV south of US-50, into the inner
  basins and ranges east of US-95, and again for northern Lassen
  County and northern Washoe County near the Oregon border. Gusty
  winds upwards of 35-40 mph, small hail, and lightning are the
  main concerns.

* Next Week: In roller coaster fashion, temperatures look to heat
  up 4-7 degrees again Tue/Wed, before cooling back down towards
  next weekend as a meandering cut-off low drifts across the
  southwestern US. Prospects for thunderstorms and the magnitude
  of the cool down will depend and the track of this closed low,
  which is typical with this type of system. Near all ensemble
  cluster analysis scenarios favor a farther south trajectory
  which would lean us towards a drier trend. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

* Density altitude concerns will remain this afternoon as our high
  temperatures remain 15-20 degrees above average. Isolated areas
  of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
  (15-25% chance)for KMMH and KHTH from 21-02z. Storms are
  capable of gusts up to 35kts, small hail, and lightning.

* Shower and thunderstorm chances increase (25-35%) for areas
  largely south of US-50 on Saturday, with generally less than
  10-15% chances for Sierra Front terminals (KRNO, KCXP, KMEV) and
  Tahoe terminals (KTRK and KTVL). Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003>005.

CA...None.

&&

$$