Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
095 FXUS65 KREV 172018 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 118 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Gusty north winds will maintain choppy lake conditions and localized critical fire weather conditions for Mono County and portions of western Nevada through the afternoon. * Frost and freeze potential mainly for Sierra valleys tonight into Tuesday morning. Coldest rural Nevada valleys could approach freezing. * Temperatures return to season averages midweek before heating to the mid 90s to near 100 in lower elevations this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Breezy north winds are still ongoing across Mono and Mineral County, but have been trending weaker as of late so the concern of lake recreation/fire impacts are lowering in response. Meanwhile, unseasonably cool weather is underway with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. A chilly night is in store tonight as lows will fall below freezing for Sierra and colder western Nevada valleys and mid-30s to 40s for all other areas. A considerable warming trend will begin Tuesday and continue into the weekend, allowing temperatures to meet and surpass seasonal averages in time for the weekend. Daytime highs will reach the 80s and 90s for the end of the week before reaching its apex this weekend when lower western Nevada valleys may see triple digit highs. As a result, a moderate heat risk will likely exist across much of western Nevada Friday through Sunday so be sure to take your heat safety precautions! While the remainder of the week and weekend are heavily favored to be dry, the one day that presents the "best" chance of afternoon convection is Thursday for the Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin where forecast soundings reflect meager instability. Still, blended guidance limits odds to 10% of showers and storms for this area. Ensembles advertise a quasi-zonal synoptic regime early next week, which would maintain above normal temperatures but preclude higher chances of afternoon convection and perhaps allow for periods of breezy winds next week. -Salas && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue today and tomorrow. Main concern this afternoon will be gusty north winds with terminals gusting 25-30 kts. Terminals out east such as KLOL/KNFL/KHTH will see sustained winds of 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Isolated BLDU may also be possible this afternoon. Winds will taper off tonight after 6Z and become light overnight. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001. Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ073. && $$