Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
490 FXUS65 KREV 070232 AAA AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Reno NV 732 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .UPDATE... We are extending the current heat advisory through Friday for the remainder of western NV, along with keeping it going in west central NV. Highs today made it to 100 degrees at Lovelock and Fallon ASOS sites, and a few Mesowest sites in Fernley and Gerlach, while Reno Airport set a new daily record high of 98. Highs on Friday look to be about the same or only a degree or so cooler, with less overall cloud cover especially in west central NV compared to today. The focus area for most thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon will shift farther east into central- eastern NV, so any easing of the heat from rain or outflow winds is less likely. For today`s thunderstorms, The Majuba RAWS site northwest of Rye Patch reservoir in northern Pershing County reported a gust of 85 MPH at some point between 545-645 PM, but it may be difficult to determine if that value resulted from a thunderstorm outflow/downdraft or a glitch in the wind sensor. Other outflow gusts across west central NV have generally peaked around 50 mph, which is more in line with showing up on high resolution analysis of downdraft CAPE and max gust potential. MJD && .SYNOPSIS... Hot conditions with showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon with a few showers lingering in western Nevada tonight. Well above normal temperatures will persist over the weekend and into next week, along with low chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024/ DISCUSSION... Today will be one of the hottest days, if not the hottest day, as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s for Sierra communities and mid 90s to 100F for western Nevada valleys. Overnight lows for western Nevada locales will only fall into mid to upper 60s tonight, providing minimal relief from the daytime heat. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for western Nevada until 8 PM as moderate to locally major heat risk continues. Be sure to take your heat safety precautions! Meanwhile, isolated thunderstorms have developed in N Washoe County and S Lyon County in the last 3 hours ahead of an approaching upper shortwave. Elsewhere, cumulus is maturing along the higher terrain of western Nevada into Mono County where MUCAPE values of 250-500 J/kg reside. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening, especially south of I-80 and west of US- 95 in the next immediate hours where a cumulus field continues to display vertical development. Showers and storms that develop here will move further east into the Basin and Range late this afternoon and early evening before this initial wave of convection tapers off. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds, small hail, and occasional cloud-to-ground lightning. Latest Hi-Res and CAM guidance suggest reinvigorated showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two overnight in Pershing and Churchill County that lingers until around sunrise. Friday and the weekend feature more hot conditions and low chances (15-30%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Eastern Pacific troughing will allow for a few degrees of cooling Friday and over the weekend, which will alleviate the heat risk somewhat but temperatures will remain well above average. Blended guidance continues to advertise increased west to northwest breezes each afternoon Friday and over the weekend, which may yield brief periods of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Slow warming is favored for the first half of next week, bringing temperatures back into the upper 90s for western Nevada valleys. -Salas AVIATION... The main weather concerns today will be continued density altitude issues with the ongoing heat episode and the development of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the day. Convection is favored to initiate just east of the Sierra Front terminals and will drift northeastward, so much of the activity will likely stay east of the primary TAF sites. The best potential for VCTS and subsequent impacts will be in the immediate 2-3 hours for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV before showers and storms move eastward/weaken in the evening. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ001-003>005. CA...None. && $$