Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
737 FXUS65 KREV 161956 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1256 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Gusty winds with critical fire weather and hazardous boating conditions continue into this evening. Gusty north winds will persist for areas south of Highway 50 Monday. * Much cooler conditions Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday morning lows will dip below freezing in Sierra valleys and near freezing for colder western NV valleys. * Warming trend for the second half of the week. Daytime highs for lower elevations will return to the 90s to around 100 by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Winds this evening and Monday... Winds are starting to increase across the area ahead of a weather system pushing into Pacific Northwest that will track across northern Nevada this evening and tonight. Gusts of 30-40 mph will bring impacts to boating on area lakes as well as critical fire weather conditions. Be fire aware for your afternoon and evening Father`s Day festivities. Winds will drop off a bit after 10-11 pm, but will shift to the north-northwest with gusts to 30-35 mph returning during overnight and early Monday morning as a dry cold front pushes through northern NV. Strongest winds Monday will impact southern Mono, Lyon and Mineral Counties. Winds will diminish Monday evening. Chilly Monday and Tuesday... After the weather system passes, unusually cool air moves into the Sierra and western NV. Overnight lows will be the larger impact with Sierra valleys dropping below freezing Monday and Tuesday mornings. Winds should prevent temperatures from dropping into the 30s Monday AM for western NV, but light winds Tuesday AM will allow lows to fall into the 30s and perhaps below freezing outside of urban areas. Afternoon highs will be a nice break from the summer heat with 60s and 70s. Heating up late in the week... Simulations (75% of the ensemble membership) continue to favor hot conditions and potential for record level heat (30% chance at RNO) for next weekend. With the building heat and surface instability, there is only 10% chance of thunder due to lack of increasing moisture. The other 25% of the simulations push a trough into the west coast which could keep conditions cooler and perhaps breezy with fire weather concerns. Brong && .AVIATION... A dry weather system will pass through northern NV this evening and tonight with gusts 30-35 kts in the lower elevations and near 50 kts over Sierra Ridges. Mountain waves will lead to bumpy departures/arrivals through tonight. Winds shift to the northwest and north overnight Sunday and early Monday with gusts 25-30 kts persisting into Monday. Light winds and VFR conditions Tuesday-Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Conditions with gusty winds of 30-40 mph through 11 pm this evening as a dry weather system moves through northern Nevada. Cooler air may help humidity rise up near 30% this evening and tonight mitigate the critical conditions. Winds will also shift to the north and northwest tonight with gusts of 30-35 mph persisting through Monday. Monday`s dry north-northwest winds are projected to be strongest in portions of southern Mono County, southern Lyon County, and Mineral County. Localized critical conditions as possible where finer fuels have cured. Brong && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-423-429. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-004. CA...&& $$