688
FXUS65 KREV 262102
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
202 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  into next week.

* There is some signal of a cooler pattern with increased breezes
  late next week, but confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The biggest challenge facing this forecaster is finding ways to fill
out this discussion amid our stretch of quiescent weather, which is
certainly a good problem to have! A slow warming trend will ensue
through Saturday, which will serve as our warmest day of the next
seven when highs reach the 80s to low 90s. A weak upper trough
passage will introduce minor cooling early next week, although
temperatures will remain well above average through at least the
middle of next week.

Winds will increase a bit Saturday afternoon in response to the
passing trough, but southwest gusts will only reach 20-25 mph at
times. We`re not anticipating critical fire weather conditions as
winds won`t be strong by any means, but it will be very dry on
Saturday as humidity falls to 8-15% in the afternoon with minimal
reprieve overnight so be extra cautious as to not cause a spark!

Ensembles are still out on the extended forecast as there is large
disparity in the latest 12Z suite. However, blended guidance is
favoring a cooler pattern as the warmer solutions for late next week
into next weekend (October 3-6) are cooler than the temperatures
we`ll see through the weekend. There is still no pronounced wind
signal in the long term but guidance is leaning towards a return of
increased afternoon breezes. While showers cannot be ruled out,
chances remain near 5% through the first week of October.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions and light afternoon breezes will prevail
through the week. Southwest breezes may increase on Saturday,
otherwise winds will remain light.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$