Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
736 FXUS65 KRIW 171836 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1236 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today with humidity below 20 percent and widespread wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. - A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across northern Wyoming this afternoon. Strong wind gusts are the main concern with this activity. - Elevated fire weather conditions continue on Saturday. - Slightly increased chances for precipitation on Sunday. Wetter and cooler conditions arrive early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Westerly flow continues today, though will become more cyclonically curved this afternoon as a shortwave begins pushing in. This is related to a larger system rotating across Montana. We will see some impacts from this, but most of the precipitation will remain to our north. The more widespread impact today will be elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will peak a few degrees warmer today east of the Divide and across southern areas, which will align with humidity values dropping into the teens. Moreover, westerly wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be widespread by early afternoon as a strong west to east surface pressure gradient sets up across the state. While the majority of the area will remain dry and windy, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern Wyoming ahead of an approaching weak cold front associated with the wave. Guidance suggests that the Bighorn Basin through Johnson County will have the best chances (20-40%) given the slightly better instability expected there this afternoon. With a deeply mixed atmosphere near the surface, any shower or storm today could throw out some strong wind gusts. Wind and any ongoing convection will wane after sunset, leaving dry conditions as the cold front pushes south overnight. A dominant westerly flow will become reestablished over the area for Saturday. Temperatures will be a little cooler behind the front, but still generally a few degrees above normal. It will be another breezy day, though not nearly to the extent of Friday. However, fire weather concerns will continue as humidity values again drop into the teens. With an even drier airmass overhead, humidity may approach 10 percent across most of the basins Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, some late day convection may develop across far southern Wyoming as Pacific moisture edges into the area. The prevailing flow becomes more southwesterly on Sunday as a trough deepens over Idaho. This will result in increased precipitation chances across the area (currently around 30-40%), though most of the area should remain on the dry and breezy side. On Monday and Tuesday the trough mentioned above is forecast to drop south and impact the area with widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. With the associated low placement, locations east of the Divide appear favored to pick up the most precipitation. Further ahead, ensemble guidance is hinting toward a continued active pattern through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Today will be windy, with winds already increasing Friday morning. Gusts over 30 knots are forecast for all sites this afternoon. KCPR and KRKS see the strongest winds, with gusts around 40 knots common, with some gusts near 45 knots. Models are also indicating some stronger gusts around 40 knots at KRIW between 21Z/Fri and 00Z/Sat; confidence is 60% to 70%. At KJAC, low level turbulence is likely as westward winds create eddies off the Teton mountains. Wind gusts approaching 40 knots at the surface, will be stronger at mid-levels. Precipitation chances this afternoon are mainly across the northern Wyoming mountains. Thunderstorms are possible with this convection. Not expecting impacts to any terminals at this time (80% confidence). About 15% chance for showers at KCPR between 20Z and 23Z. Less chances to impact KCOD or KWRL. Winds generally decrease after sunset, roughly between 02Z and 06Z/Sat. A cold front moving through brings a north wind shift to some sites, and could keep gusty winds a little longer. Winds begin to increase again Saturday morning. Saturday is windy again, but gusts are not as high as today. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 437 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today as a surface pressure gradient increases ahead of a weak cold front. Sustained west wind of 25 to 35 mph is expected to develop by early afternoon, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. At the same time, humidity values are expected to drop below 20 percent across most of the area. A drier airmass will move in for Saturday, bringing humidity values down below 15 percent for most basins. Wind will not be as strong Saturday, but will still be breezy. Warm and mainly dry conditions will continue Sunday before cooler and wetter conditions arrive Monday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Myers AVIATION...Wittmann FIRE WEATHER...Myers