102
FXUS65 KRIW 260713
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
113 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak scattered rain showers northeast Sunday afternoon but
  mainly dry.

- Warming and dry trend through mid week.

- Increasing precipitation chances beyond mid week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

IR currently depicts a shortwave pushing out of eastern Idaho
skimming the northern portions of the CWA. Scattered rain
showers across the northeast and for Park County that will
weaken into the early Sunday morning hours. These same areas
will see some more development later in the afternoon with
daytime heating before weakening once again into the nighttime
hours due to radiational coolings. No impacts are expected at
this time. Otherwise, a mainly dry Sunday for most with some
gusty winds for the wind prone areas with gusts up to 20-30 mph
likely with peak heating of the afternoon. Once this last
shortwave pushes through, ridging will being to strongly build
in into Monday with a warming and dry trend expected through mid
week. Above average temperatures will be the story with snowmelt
the main concern with possible river rises during this time
span. Currently, stages are not a concern but could be into
action to minor stages by Tuesday and Wednesday dependent on how
warm it gets. Guidance currently shows 10 to 15 degrees above
average being the most likely scenario over 70-80 percent and
thus, will be something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

The upper level ridge will maintain its strength as it
progresses east by mid to end of the week. A deep low pushing
out of the GOA will extend a deepening trough through the
Pacific northwest with increasing divergence aloft. Increasing
precipitation chances look possible by mid Thursday and into
early Saturday but with much uncertainty at this time. Ensemble
models show the best case to be constrained to northern parts of
the CWA as the main finger of the PFJ staying north into
Montana and Canada. Regardless, impacts look to be minimal at
this time with broad ridging building back in from the south for
the remainder of next weekend and beyond. Longer term models
indicate a potent low coming out of the GOA later in the first
week of June and could be the next system to have any
sustainable impacts outside of the norm this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 948 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Best shower chances
will be over northern Wyoming through the next 24 hours. Have not
put rain in any of the TAFs due to low confidence/coverage in
showers. KCOD and KWRL have a 15% to 20% chance overnight and into
Sunday morning. KCPR has a 20% to 25% chance Sunday morning into the
early afternoon. Most showers should stay north of KJAC tonight.
Otherwise, a northwest wind increases Sunday, with gusts 20 to 25
knots for most locations.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Wittmann