004
FXUS65 KRIW 211126
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
526 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm before sunrise this
  morning. Precipitation dissipates by the mid morning.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms develop during the
  late morning becoming widespread and intensifying by the
  early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will be
  possible this afternoon, especially in parts of Johnson and
  Natrona Counties.

- Hot and dry weather returns for the end of the weekend and
  through much of the upcoming week. Highs may near 100 degrees
  in parts of the CWA by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the state early
this morning. Convection is expected to remain weak, with some
capable of producing small hail, heavy rain, gusty winds, and
frequent lighting. A few may linger towards sunrise but the majority
will dissipate before than. The week concludes with seasonable
temperatures, partly sunny skies, and the chance for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

June has been rather dry across many parts of the Cowboy State with
little to no rainfall in places. The good news is some much needed
moisture looks to make its way into the region today. Unfortunately,
this moisture will come in the form of convective showers and
thunderstorms. Figuring out where convection develops and this
moisture ends up is like throwing a dart at a dartboard with a
blindfold on. So even though we may see some widespread convection
occur this afternoon, there will be places who see little to nothing
and places who see a much needed dose of rain.

This convection is due to a weak shortwave moving across the Inter-
Mountain West today. A strong high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS will funnel gulf moisture into the region. Combine this warm
gulf moisture with the favorable dynamics from the shortwave and you
get widespread showers and thunderstorms. The 06Z SPC convective
outlook has upgraded parts of WY to Slight/Marginal chance for
severe thunderstorms. Parts of Natrona and Johnson counties have a
(50-70%) chance of seeing thunderstorms and will likely be the spot
with the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
The remainder of the state has a (20-50%) chance of seeing
thunderstorm development but a lower chance of seeing stronger
storms. There are a few things to be concerned about with any strong
to severe storms that do develop. These concerns are small hail
(possibly nearing 1 inch in the strongest storms), strong gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. There is a small
chance for some flooding to occur depending on the track of the
storms that develop this afternoon. PWAT values are high for this
time of year, ranging from 0.75 to 1.00 inches which is around 150-
200% above normal.

Now to summarize how today looks to play out, a few showers and
thunderstorms linger till around sunrise. During the morning, skies
will remain patchy in areas but the sun will likely break through at
times. High temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below
normal for today. By the mid-late morning, convection is expected to
start developing across the southwestern CWA and gradually move
northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread and
likely begin to intensify by the early afternoon. The best chance
for strong to severe storms will be in parts of Natrona and Johnson
Counties during the mid to late afternoon. Most of the convection
will move out of the CWA by the mid to late evening with a few
lingering showers until midnight.

The weekend will see a return of warm and mostly dry weather as a
potent area of high pressure builds back into the region.
Temperatures return to the 80s and even 90s for Saturday with some
of the warmest temperatures arriving by Sunday. Models are showing
parts of the Bighorn and Wind River Basin having a (40-70%) chance
of seeing 95 or higher temperatures. These warm above normal
temperatures are expected to persist through the upcoming week with
many seeing highs of 90+ degrees for much of the week. This trend
towards hot and dry weather really highlights the importance of rain
from the showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon, as
we may not see another chance of precipitation for a while. There
will likely be elevated to near critical fire weather conditions as
we head into the end of the weekend and the first half of the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A wave will combine with ample moisture for continued widespread
convection chances today. The ongoing early morning showers will
dissipate shortly after sunrise. This will be followed by new
development starting across southwestern Wyoming after around
15Z, moving northeast through the afternoon. All terminals will
have a shot at seeing some terminal impacts, though chances at
KJAC are low enough (less than 20%) that we have decided not to
mention in the TAF for now. The best chances for stronger storms
will be east of the Divide. Storms will have the ability to
produce brief, heavy rain, as well as the usual gusty and
erratic outflow winds. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
with direct terminal impacts. Otherwise, KCPR should see the
current low cloud deck raise over the next couple of hours.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Myers