028
FXUS65 KRIW 201720
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1120 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns this afternoon across central WY, with
  gusty wind and low RH. Red Flag Warnings have been issued
  from noon to 7 PM MDT.

- A couple of cold fronts will bring cool temperatures to the
  area from Saturday through Tuesday. These cold fronts look
  quite dry, so precipitation chances/amounts do not look high.

- A dirty ridge will bring back above normal temperatures by the
  middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A loosely coupled upper-low currently located over central CA and a
trough in western MT will slide eastward today into tomorrow. These
two upper-level features will pass south and north of WY
respectively, which means most of the area will miss out on any
precip chances. As this tandem passes through Friday night into
Saturday a cold front will sweep through the area bringing much
cooler temperatures Saturday into Saturday night. The upper-low to
the south looks to be a bit slower to pass by and may bring a bit of
moisture to extreme southeastern Sweetwater County/Natrona County as
it does so Saturday night. Rainfall amounts would be anywhere from a
trace to a few hundredths of an inch in the aforementioned areas.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be chilly in the mid to upper 30s
for lower elevations east of the Continental Divide. Wouldn`t be
surprised if there was frost in low spots Sunday morning. For those
who still have a garden it doesn`t look like this will be a freeze
event, so impacts should be minimal to vegetation. The most notable
weather impacts from these weather systems will be the elevated to
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across central WY,
which will be discussed in more detail in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

A brief ridge moves overhead on Sunday in between weather systems,
which will allow for temperatures to rebound a bit, back to about
seasonal averages for this time of year. Another trough surges down
from the northwest very quickly on Monday. Very light precip
accumulations are possible (30%) with this weather system as it
really won`t have enough time to drop more than a few hundredths
of liquid for any location. By Tuesday there`s a bit of a
disconnect in model guidance with how the pattern evolves. By
that time ensemble model guidance starts to diverge greatly. The
deterministic GFS wants to develop a cut-off upper-low from the
Monday system and have it retrograde northwest through the
middle part of next week, which does seem to align with a few
ensemble members of the GEFS, but the majority do have a ridge
developing behind Monday`s trough. For now the latter seems
to be the more likely (70%) scenario, so expect a substantial
warming trend by the middle part of the week as the ridge builds
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals through midday Saturday. A shortwave
sweeps east across Montana Friday afternoon and evening, nudging a
cold front south through areas east of the Continental Divide. There
is enough lift and mid-level moisture to generate isolated showers
over far northern Wyoming late today, but no impacts beyond SCT-BKN
mid-cloud deck at KCOD. Gusty westerly wind 10-20kts increases at
almost all terminals by 21Z/Friday before slowing again by sunset.
The cold front begins a southward trek Friday evening and generates
gusty northerly wind 10-20kts overnight. The front does make it to
KRKS around 08Z/Saturday, but fails to reach other western
terminals.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Today will be the most consequential day in terms of fire weather
concerns in the next 7 days. Increased wind ahead of a strong cold
front and good mixing leading to low RH will result in elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across central WY. As such, have
issued Red Flag Warnings for zones 280, 281, 289, and 300. Zone
281 is more marginal, especially across the northern half of
the zone, but criteria is likely (60%) to be met across the
southern half of the zone. This also aligns better with the Red
Flag Warning in southern Campbell County. The Livingston Draw
Wildfire is located in northeastern Johnson County where wind
will be lower and RH higher, but conditions will still be
favorable for fire growth and spread of that wildfire this
afternoon. A strong cold front will bring an abrupt northerly
wind shift Friday night, with wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph across
the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County down into Natrona County.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280-281-
289-300.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...Rowe