633
FXUS65 KRIW 192027
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
227 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today begins the warming trend, which will persist into the
  weekend. The first triple-digit temps of the season are
  possible Sunday and Monday.

- A wetter plume will push into WY beginning Thursday afternoon,
  with best chances for precipitation occurring Friday
  afternoon.

- Hot and dry weather will occur through the weekend and into
  the early part of next week with low confidence in any relief
  coming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

We remain cooler than normal today as cloud cover across much of the
region has limited warming. The warmth will return though, with
temps climbing to much above normal values by the weekend. We may
even see our first triple-digits across portions of the Bighorn
Basin Sunday and Monday. The Basin/Greybull to Lovell area is the
most likely to see 100+ temps (50 - 60% chance) Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures look to moderate slightly after Tuesday, but extended
range model solutions are not showing any strong indications of a
longwave trough or moisture plume that would bring much in the way
of relief from the heat.

Before we really start to bake and dry out this weekend, we will
have one last chance for some moisture with a push of Gulf moisture
beginning Thursday evening. Today, the moisture flow will generally
be to our east, though there is a 20 chance that some isolated
showers could develop along Casper Mountain or perhaps the southern
Bighorns later this afternoon. The trough to our west will regress
westward tomorrow and even further east for Friday, allowing widely
scattered shower activity to spread into the region. Best chances
for precipitation will come Friday. Best wetting rain (>0.1 in.)
chances will be east of the Divide, particularly off the lee of the
Winds, Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. Shower chances continue
through Friday evening, then taper off after sunset. Then Saturday,
the ridge begins to build and the real warmup begins.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24-30 hours over
western and central Wyoming. High clouds continue to stream from
SW to NE over much of the area today, with some mid-level
cumulus starting to form during the late morning over southern
WY as well as the northwest WY mountains. Some moderate cumulus
with light showers is expected to develop late this afternoon
over Casper Mountain and the northern Absarokas, potentially
pushing some gusty winds into KCPR and KCOD, respectively. Winds
will remain light to breezy through the afternoon, though some
sites may see gusts to 20 kts. Winds decrease overnight with
continued mid- and high-level clouds mainly over the central
and eastern parts of the state, and some sites like KRKS and
KCPR should see some east winds.

Clouds increase Thursday over the area as shower possibilities
slightly increase over the central and northern WY mountains
during the mid to late afternoon. Afternoon SW winds should be
gusty at KRKS with east winds increasing from KCPR to KRIW/KLND.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSUs ZDV and ZLC
for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hensley
AVIATION...McDonald