Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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336 FXUS65 KRIW 281049 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 449 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms develop across southern and western Wyoming this afternoon. Most locations will remain dry, with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. - A weather system brings more widespread rain shower/thunderstorm chances to the area Wednesday afternoon. It will also be breezy across the area. - The end of the week looks dry and a bit cooler after the system passes on Wednesday. Then, slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday. - Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry period beginning next week as a dominant ridge sets up over the western US. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 A shortwave associated with an upper-low off the coast of British Columbia will approach the Cowboy State today, which will bring isolated rain showers/thunderstorms to southern and western portions of the area this afternoon/evening. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will occur with showers/storms. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today, with many locations east of the Continental Divide getting close or hitting 80 degrees this afternoon. Lower elevations west of the Continental Divide will reach low to middle 70s this afternoon. The shortwave will pass through on Wednesday with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave will bring breezy conditions to the forecast area on Wednesday as well. After this system moves through it will be warm and mostly dry through Saturday. Another slight chance (20-30%) of rain showers/thunderstorms on Sunday as another quick moving shortwave will slide through the Cowboy State. Some minor river flooding is possible (30-40%) by the middle of this week due to mountain snowmelt as temperatures warm up today and tomorrow. Overall, it will be an unsettled weather pattern with shortwaves in mostly zonal flow through this weekend. The shortwaves will all be quick moving and weak, so not expecting big precip makers or highly impactful weather into next week. It will be fairly breezy for most locations beginning Wednesday and continuing through this weekend. The breezy conditions, combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather conditions later this week through this weekend, although greenup will limit this threat. Early next week weather models are indicating a large ridge will develop across the western US, which would really heat things up and keep it quite dry across the Cowboy State. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 440 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions throughout the entirety of the period. Some light winds and mainly clear skies to start the period with increasing mid to upper level clouds through the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours. Gusty winds up 1o 18kts for COD and west of the Divide, less than 10kts to the east. Any thunderstorm activity will be southwest and west of RKS not expected to be near station, and thus, kept any mention of it out of the TAF. Increasing precipitation chances for Wednesday but a dry Tuesday is in store for all TAF sites with no other weather elements expected at this time. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rowe AVIATION...Lowe