Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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710 FXUS65 KRIW 160640 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1240 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Not as warm Sunday as cooler temperatures push in through mid week. - Increasing precipitation chances for northern half of the CWA through mid week. - Mainly dry and a warming trend by the end of the week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Current IR depicts the upper level low and associated trough extending across the Pacific northwest with ample mid to upper level moisture extending over the ridge into the northern Rockies and Great Plains. Some light precipitation over the Teton area currently that will linger out of Idaho through the overnight and early Sunday morning hours. Otherwise, the low will push slowly eastward towards the CWA through the day Sunday as a cold front drops through from late morning and into the afternoon hours. Not as warm temperatures with the aforementioned cold front with 80s further southwest and 60s to the northwest with its timing of FROPA. Short term models are mainly in agreement on FROPA, and thus, temperature forecasts are on track at this point in time. Some light rain showers will accompany the cold front further southwest that could see an isolated thunderstorm or two near Natrona County but confidence low at this point in time (<20 percent). Much of the CWA will remain dry, but cooler temperatures and more of a northerly component to the winds along with ample mid and upper level clouds throughout the short term period. A shortwave will affect northwest portions of the CWA for Yellowstone come early Monday morning by daybreak with increasing precipitation chances throughout the day. Models are in agreement and consistent with the past few runs on precipitation occurring with no significant impacts expected in terms of accumulations. Higher elevation should see a bit of snow (albeit very light in nature) Monday night and come Tuesday morning. Probabilities remain low less than 20-30 percent with minimal accumulation amounts at this time and should remain so given the warmer temperatures leading up to this storm system. Continued precipitation chances through much of Tuesday as the upper level low starts to fill with decreasing divergence aloft and the main PVA anomaly pushing northeast. This is when it becomes more progressive with the main finger of the PFJ increasing in strength as it kicks it out into the upper Great Plains. The northern half of the CWA looks to be the ones to see any precipitation amounts of note, especially for northwestern portions of the state for Yellowstone and all remaining north of the Owl Creeks to western Bighorns. Throughout, winds remain relatively light with breezy conditions at best for wind prone areas with the passing of each shortwave. Wednesday will remain cool and somewhat cloudy as conditions improve. Mainly dry outside of any higher terrain storms for the remainder of the work week and into next week as a warming trend begins through this period. Upper level ridging and weaker upper level flow with build through the Rockies with increasing convergence aloft. Any storms do not look impactful with more of a air mass situation with the weaker upper level flow. All in all, Monday morning through Tuesday night look to be the best chances for at least measurable to light accumulations for the northern half of the CWA while further south will remain relatively dry throughout the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1101 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There will be enough moisture for some midlevel clouds through most of the period, but no precipitation is expected through Sunday morning. However, convection chances will begin to increase at KCPR by mid-afternoon, but confidence is still not high enough to include more than a lowered broken ceiling for now. Otherwise, most terminals will see another breezy afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...Myers