055
FXUS61 KRLX 210528
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather
into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances linger into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 735 PM Monday...

Monitoring isolated showers or storms to develop along the
eastern mountains this afternoon. Previous forecast remains on
track.

As of 145 PM Monday...

Aside from a few possible showers or a rumble of thunder over
the higher terrain this afternoon, hot and dry day is expected,
with only fair-weather cumulus noted around the area. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. It will remain dry and
calm overnight, with partly to mostly clear skies over the CWA.
Lows will generally range from the lower 50s in the mountains to
around 60 degrees in the lowlands, but many valleys are likely
to decouple and dip at least a few degrees cooler, with some
valley fog expected again tonight. Tomorrow will be another hot
and mostly to partly sunny day, with lower elevation highs again
towards the upper 80s, and mountains getting into the 70s and
lower 80s. A few 90s will be possible. Some mountain showers and
storms seem a bit more likely tomorrow with a weak shortwave
moving through the upper-level ridge, and generally speaking, a
few more clouds appear possible tomorrow as well as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Starting off this period we will have fleeting surface high
pressure toward the east and upper level ridging weakening as a
low pressure system sails to the northeast, gaining closer to
our area. This feature will slide a cold frontal boundary closer
to the CWA from the west and throughout the day. With weak high
pressure chances of showers and storms will be possible,
especially during the afternoon and evening and also even at
night as the aforementioned cold front inches toward us very
slowly.

SPC has us in a marginal risk for severe storms just north of
us and along southeast Ohio. The main threat is damaging wind
and large hail. This threat will likely be for most of
Wednesday. The extent of the threat may increase further east as
the cold front gets closer, but do to timing at night the risk
may wane.

Seems like the parent low will slow down and drag the cold
front through fairly slowly making it hang around through all
of Thursday. This slow passage will prime us for Friday for
possible flash flooding across much of the area. We are
expecting around half an inch QPF, which could be much greater
under heavy thunderstorm activity during frontal passage,
however much of the instability may be lost, but that slow
progression through the area may be our downfall for Friday
creating potential issues in low lying flood prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

For Friday and into the weekend we will have fairly high
chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially diurnal, as
chances will increase to likely POPs during the afternoons. The
models, especially the GFS and EURO, become very divergent
during this period. The best solution was to take a blend of
long range models from central guidance which equated to the
high chances outside the afternoons and likely POPs during the
afternoons.

WPC placed our southern portions in an excessive rainfall risk
for Friday so flash flooding will be our main threat for Friday
and into the weekend. From looking at the long range models
there may not be much more of an excessive rainfall threat for
the rest of the period, but since we do have high chances for
non-severe thunderstorm activity this will likely be the culprit
for the weekend causing the potential for flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the end of
period, with the exception of IFR fog at EKN this morning.
Dense patchy fog may develop along other river valleys overnight
past 08Z, but may only stay in the vicinity of PKB, CKB and
CRW like last night. All fog restrictions should improve to VFR
by ~13Z this morning.

A shortwave will move over the area by 18Z today allowing for
scattered CU fields across the area. Chances for thundershowers
remain this afternoon across the mountains of WV and SW VA as a
result. Terminals look to stay out of it for now, but will have
to monitor updates for exact timing and coverage.

Winds this morning going calm across the lowlands; light and
variable across higher elevations. Winds pick up out of the SW
by ~15Z and will remain light through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could be more dense than advertised.
Timing and coverage of showers and t-storms today may vary from
the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 05/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday into Thursday with a cold front.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...LTC