282
FXUS61 KRLX 222103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
503 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm once again today, as high pressure exits.
Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 PM Wednesday...

Did increase pops across parts of SE Ohio and Northern WV later
this evening, as there is the potential for storms to refire
along the cold frontal boundary to our west this
afternoon/evening and potentially survive into our CWA.
Otherwise, the previous forecast was mainly on track.

As of 137 PM Wednesday...

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over southeast Ohio and
northeast Kentucky this afternoon. A slight risk of severe
weather remains in place from central WV to points north and
west with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and hail.
In this area, pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 kts of
0-6km bulk shear will support the development of a few stronger
storms. The overall best threat for severe weather today still
appears to be west of our region, across central Ohio and
central Kentucky, where more shear and instability will be
available.

There is the potential for another round of thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning as a shortwave approaches
from the southwest. Some uncertainty exists regarding the
strength of these storms, and that will depend on how much
energy is dampened by this afternoon`s convective activity. Some
models show any convection weakening to just showers as they
approach from the west by 03-06Z.

There will be another threat for stronger thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon with a marginal risk currently forecast by SPC. The
threat level appears to be lower than today with lower
instability and shear. The main threats appear to be wind and
hail once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

The front will stall over the area Thursday night into Friday,
then gradually lift back north as a warm front on Friday as a
shortwave moves along the front Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Models continue to struggle with the strength of the short
wave and how far north things get, but for now we bring low-end
likely POPs into the area Friday night.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Saturday or
Saturday night. With the parent low in southern Canada, only a
modest push of cold air is expected, but we should see a bit of
an enhancement again in storm chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Models show a system lifting from the midwest on Sunday into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will push a warm front
across the area on Sunday, followed by a cold front on Monday.
With systems nearly every day from later today into Monday, we
are getting increasingly concerned with the threat for flash
flooding to occur for Sunday and Monday. This will be followed
by an upper level wave on Tuesday in the significantly cooler
air. Models seem to have come into much better agreement for the
Sunday/Monday system, but still have differences during the
Tues/Wed time period. They generally agree on some upper-level
shortwave moving across, but differ a good deal on the timing
and amplitude, and thus the rain chances, so only Chance POPs
are in place to end the period for now.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will pop up over the region this
afternoon and into this evening. In any thunderstorm, visibility
can drop down to IFR for a brief time and winds can gust 40-50
kts. There is low confidence in the pinpoint timing of
thunderstorms, so just went with VCTS in the TAFS for now.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in dry areas. There is
potential for another round of thunderstorms overnight and into
early Thursday morning.

Fog will develop in spots overnight, especially in areas where
it has recently rained. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
overnight in fog. In addition, MVFR ceilings are expected to
move into the region Thursday morning after 06Z, with IFR
expected in the mountains. Low stratus will stick around through
late Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight could vary from the
forecast. Development of fog and low stratus Thursday morning
could vary.







EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
Thursday morning with a cold front. IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night and again on
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JMC