076
FXUS61 KRLX 220521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
121 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides unseasonably warm and dry weather through
tonight. Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 333 PM Tuesday...

Sent an update to add PoPs and thunder to NE KY and western WV per
latest radar imagery showing convection firing up over these
areas. Additional convection is noted over OH moving northeast,
expect this activity to move over the Mid OH valley and portions
of WV for the rest of this afternoon. Any convection will
quickly subside around sunset.

As of 117 PM Tuesday...

Summerlike weather will continue in the near-term forecast
period with plenty of sunshine and highs expected to reach the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees in some lowland spots both
afternoons.

A ridge bringing a push of warm, southerly air will control the
pattern today and again on Wednesday. A cold front will begin to
approach from the northwest Wednesday, but it will likely slow
down or stall out over central Ohio Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are
possible late on Wednesday. The best chance of severe weather
will likely be over our southeast Ohio counties. Just outside of
our CWA in central Ohio, daytime heating and a southwesterly
low- level jet will support MLCAPE values of 1,000-1,800 J/kg
and 30-40 kts of bulk shear Wednesday afternoon. The ingredients
for severe thunderstorms over southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky
and West Virginia will be marginal, with high resolution models
showing a timing of 00Z to 03Z Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Tuesday...

Expect storms to be on going at least along and NW of the Ohio
River Wednesday evening, and there is a chance for some isolated
pop-up activity across KY and WV, as well. With sufficient
instability (widespread MU CAPE of 1000J/kg or more, and
possibly 2000J/kg in SE Ohio), some storms are likely to be on
the stronger side, but with shear looking limited before
midnight, the risk for organized severe storms seems low. Models
are split on the evolution of activity overnight, with some
having it dying down some after dark, while others maintain
weakening activity moving east. There is some agreement on
another surge in POPs overnight, with some models depicting this
as an MCS-like feature moving into the CWA from KY and/or
southern Ohio. Shear looks to increase overnight, so we`ll have
to watch for severe potential with whatever activity does come
out of the west.

The front that is actually feeding the storm potential will
itself move through the CWA on Thursday, keeping shower and
storm chances alive that day, though severe potential currently
looks limited on Thursday. A brief reduction in POPs is noted
Thursday night as the front should shift south of us for a
short while, but we may not be entirely clear that night.
Between the rain and the front, Thursday is likely to be 5-10
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with highs ranging from 60s in
the mountains to 70s in the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

Any respite may be short-lived, as the pattern is forecast to
remain active into early next week, with fronts forecast to pass
and stall over the area. A low pressure moving across the
Mississippi and into the Great Lakes may drag Thursday`s cold
front back north as a weak warm front on Friday and bring more
shower and storm chances Friday and Friday night. This cold
front then pushes through on Saturday, with the potential for
another brief reduction in shower and storm chances. However,
models are in reasonable agreement on this front stalling out
over or south of the CWA, with yet another low pressure system
then riding along this boundary and lifting across or north of
our CWA on Sunday and Monday, bringing more widespread shower
and storm chances.

High temps in the long-term are likely to be near to a bit above
normal, depending on cloud cover and precip coverage any given
day. Lows can be expected to remain quite mild for this time of
year owing to the expected clouds, rain, and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

Maintaining VFR conditions through the morning, as high
pressure starts to slide east. Winds will be light and
variable farther west and across the higher elevations; going
calm across the mountain and river valleys.

Patchy river valley fog may develop in KEKN and the sheltered
river valleys this morning. Confidence is not strong though as
winds and cloud cover could keep it from forming altogether,
models are not confidence with coverage or timing either. IFR
restrictions could be possible at EKN if it does form.

Clouds will increase and thicken this morning as a cold front
approaches from the west. CIGs will gradually lower as well, but
VFR CIGs will last through much of the day, unless showers or
thunderstorms are around. Winds will pickup out of the SW by
mid-morning, gradually increasing in speed through the day, but
remaining light to breezy at times.

Afternoon showers and storms may develop today as the cold
front nears, but this is mostly of concern for the western
lowlands of WV and SE Ohio until the evening. Allowed VCSH at
CRW, HTS and PKB to cover the chances for showers at these
locations in the afternoon. IFR conditions possible under any
showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog, otherwise High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at KEKN. Timing of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could vary
from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 05/22/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
into Thursday with a cold front. IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC