846
FXUS61 KRLX 212325
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
725 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides unseasonably warm and dry weather through
tonight. Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 333 PM Tuesday...

Sent an update to add PoPs and thunder to NE KY and western WV per
latest radar imagery showing convection firing up over these
areas. Additional convection is noted over OH moving northeast,
expect this activity to move over the Mid OH valley and portions
of WV for the rest of this afternoon. Any convection will
quickly subside around sunset.

As of 117 PM Tuesday...

Summerlike weather will continue in the near-term forecast
period with plenty of sunshine and highs expected to reach the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees in some lowland spots both
afternoons.

A ridge bringing a push of warm, southerly air will control the
pattern today and again on Wednesday. A cold front will begin to
approach from the northwest Wednesday, but it will likely slow
down or stall out over central Ohio Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are
possible late on Wednesday. The best chance of severe weather
will likely be over our southeast Ohio counties. Just outside of
our CWA in central Ohio, daytime heating and a southwesterly
low- level jet will support MLCAPE values of 1,000-1,800 J/kg
and 30-40 kts of bulk shear Wednesday afternoon. The ingredients
for severe thunderstorms over southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky
and West Virginia will be marginal, with high resolution models
showing a timing of 00Z to 03Z Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Tuesday...

Expect storms to be on going at least along and NW of the Ohio
River Wednesday evening, and there is a chance for some isolated
pop-up activity across KY and WV, as well. With sufficient
instability (widespread MU CAPE of 1000J/kg or more, and
possibly 2000J/kg in SE Ohio), some storms are likely to be on
the stronger side, but with shear looking limited before
midnight, the risk for organized severe storms seems low. Models
are split on the evolution of activity overnight, with some
having it dying down some after dark, while others maintain
weakening activity moving east. There is some agreement on
another surge in POPs overnight, with some models depicting this
as an MCS-like feature moving into the CWA from KY and/or
southern Ohio. Shear looks to increase overnight, so we`ll have
to watch for severe potential with whatever activity does come
out of the west.

The front that is actually feeding the storm potential will
itself move through the CWA on Thursday, keeping shower and
storm chances alive that day, though severe potential currently
looks limited on Thursday. A brief reduction in POPs is noted
Thursday night as the front should shift south of us for a
short while, but we may not be entirely clear that night.
Between the rain and the front, Thursday is likely to be 5-10
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with highs ranging from 60s in
the mountains to 70s in the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

Any respite may be short-lived, as the pattern is forecast to
remain active into early next week, with fronts forecast to pass
and stall over the area. A low pressure moving across the
Mississippi and into the Great Lakes may drag Thursday`s cold
front back north as a weak warm front on Friday and bring more
shower and storm chances Friday and Friday night. This cold
front then pushes through on Saturday, with the potential for
another brief reduction in shower and storm chances. However,
models are in reasonable agreement on this front stalling out
over or south of the CWA, with yet another low pressure system
then riding along this boundary and lifting across or north of
our CWA on Sunday and Monday, bringing more widespread shower
and storm chances.

High temps in the long-term are likely to be near to a bit above
normal, depending on cloud cover and precip coverage any given
day. Lows can be expected to remain quite mild for this time of
year owing to the expected clouds, rain, and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 724 PM Tuesday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through at least 12Z
Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure slides east of the
Appalachians, still influencing the local weather conditions
through early Wednesday. Winds will become light and variable,
even calm during the overnight hours. Patchy river valley fog
may develop in KEKN and the sheltered river valleys early
Wednesday morning.

Clouds will increase and thicken early Wednesday morning as a
cold front approaches from the west. Afternoon showers and
storms may develop while the area resides under the warm sector.


Although widespread VFR conditions should prevail on Wednesday,
can not ruled out a brief period of IFR conditions under a heavy
afternoon showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog also may not develop at KEKN.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a cold front. IFR
possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into
Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...ARJ