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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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158 FXUS61 KRLX 101551 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front today with isolated showers and storms. Mainly dry through the work week with building heat. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday with a weak cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1150 AM Monday... Upper shortwave and weak surface front will cross the area this afternoon with isolated showers and possibly storms developing as it does so. Wave will move to the south and east of the area tonight, with at least some partial clearing, although higher terrain may hold onto some lower clouds overnight. Areas that do clear will see the formation of valley fog overnight, with high pressure building in and light winds. Tuesday looks to be dry, with high pressure in control. Can`t completely rule out a brief passing shower from combination of heating and weak ripples aloft, but overall, atmosphere looks to be dry and stable, thus expecting a dry, sunny day. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Monday... Surface high pressure will be the centerpiece of the short term period, advertising mostly dry weather and warming temperatures. Pleasant temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday, but becomes warmer and a touch more humid heading into midweek as the high establishes itself overhead. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 AM Monday... Pressure height rises will continue to yield a warming trend heading into the end of the work week. Above normal temperatures will prevail, especially by Friday, with afternoon highs progged to reach the lower 90s. A rise in humidity levels will impose muggier conditions as an uptick in moisture streams up from the Gulf of Mexico. A weak disturbance tracks through the Ohio Valley late Thursday night into Friday, with a moisture starved cold front aiming for the Central Appalachians by the second half of the day Friday. Despite unfavorable upper level support with this passing system, hot and muggy conditions preceding the frontal passage may help stir up some isolated thunderstorms during peak heating hours. Dry weather triumphs once more in the wake of the front for the weekend beneath strong ridging aloft. Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm, with highs stretching into the 80s and 90s. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 600 AM Monday... Patchy fog near the southern terminals mixes out in the next couple hours. VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of the TAF period as a weak cold front transits the region today. This may yield some spotty showers, or perhaps even an isolated rumble of thunder late this afternoon into this evening. With low coverage expected, will address with VCTS/VCSH for now. Light winds this morning increase to 5-10KTs with some gusts into the teens from the southwest ahead of the cold front, turning west- northwesterly after frontal passage. Some additional patchy fog will be possible for Tuesday morning, contingent on clearing out low level clouds early enough. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated to scattered convection could affect the terminals this afternoon. Patchy fog possible overnight, contingent on skies clearing. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Valley fog possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JP