753
FXUS61 KRLX 131001
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
601 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry today. Chance for
showers and isolated storms on Friday. Heat wave commences for
the end of the week into at least the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...

No changes needed at this time.

As of 120 AM Thursday...

Any patchy valley fog mixes out shortly after daybreak this
morning.

Surface high pressure remains entrenched across much of the eastern
half of the country. Weak high zonal flow aloft is yielding pretty
paltry low level southwest flow with low level moisture slow to
increase through the day as a result. Even with daytime highs rising
to the upper 80s to lower 90 across the lower elevations, it won`t
feel that oppressive yet with dew points still in the upper
50s/lower 60s. Couldn`t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm near
the mountains this afternoon, but just about everyone should stay
dry until cold frontal passage Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

Eastward progression of an upper level trough with a developing
cold front will open up the forecast period. Precipitation
reaches our far northwestern zones Friday morning and drapes
across the northern extent of the forecast area during peak
heating hours. Should see enough destabilization in the midst
of a warm and moist environment set in place over the Central
Appalachians for convection out ahead of the front on Friday
afternoon. Forecast soundings denote a moist low to mid level
profile and favorable lapse rates to support strong to possibly
severe storms during peak heating hours across north-central to
northeast West Virginia, yielding the potential for isolated
downbursts. Activity quickly wanes Friday evening as the front
marches off the eastern seaboard.

A dominating ridge pattern then takes center stage for the start
of the weekend, with dry weather prevailing once more. This
will eventually set into motion a heat wave later in the weekend
into next week, but for Saturday post-frontal temperatures look
to crest in the low 80s across the lowlands and 70s for the
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Heat wave stretches from Fathers Day into at least Wednesday,
   with heat indices reaching the upper 90s to near triple digit
   mark each afternoon.

 * Daily chances for afternoon shower/storm development along
   the mountains Monday through Wednesday.

A building ridge establishing residency over the eastern half
of the country spells the concern for heat impacts for an
extended period of time beginning on Sunday. A combination of
rising pressure heights and onshore flow will impose increasing
temperatures and humidity, leading to afternoon heat index
values stretching to concerning levels each day from Sunday
into at least Wednesday. Afternoon highs in the lowlands range
from the mid to upper 90s beginning on Fathers Day through the
end of the forecast period, with burdensome humidity creating
indices nearing the triple digit mark during the late afternoon
and evening hours.

The heat wave forges daily concern until the ridge eventually
breaks down beyond midweek. Will continue to highlight the
growing concern for heat-related impacts in the HWO, but do
foresee headlines becoming warranted within the next few days.

In addition to the heat, we will likely see the return of daily
chances for afternoon showers and storms within this dirty ridge
pattern. This will be most likely along the spine of the
Appalachians and will be driven primarily by daytime heating.
Activity is likely to be weak and slow movers in response to
lack of upper level support and light mid to upper level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...

Patchy valley fog near EKN/CKB/CRW/HTS mixes out early this morning,
otherwise mostly clear skies through the period with light winds.

Could see some additional patchy fog tonight, but chances too low to
include at the end of the 12Z TAFs for now.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy river valley fog possible after 07Z
tonight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JP