145
FXUS61 KRLX 190448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1248 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A chance of some showers/thunderstorms in the mountains this
afternoon, otherwise a high pressure system provides dry
weather through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

After some patchy dense early morning fog burns off, expect a
lot of sunshine today. Models showing a ridge building in aloft
today and tonight. Even so, some models are showing enough
leftover moisture for some showers or thunderstorms in the
mountains this afternoon. With precipitable water values under
an inch, not anticipating any water issues. With the ridge
building, temperatures this afternoon are expected to be warmer
than on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A few showers or storms, mainly across the higher terrain from peak
heating, should slowly dissipate Sunday evening. Drier, and
increasingly warmer weather is in store for Monday into Tuesday, as
high pressure surface and aloft builds into the region. Can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing during
peak heating hours either of these days, provided something can
break through the cap, but overall, expect much of the period and
area to remain dry. With the building ridge across the area, some
locations could even top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according
to the nws heat risk map, sensitive individuals could be affected,
even though this is below criteria for an advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point looking to be to our west, but confidence in this is low
at this point due to uncertainty. Another wave looks to move into
the area for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Sunday...

Patchy dense fog will be forming early this morning. After the
fog burns off, expect a cumulus deck today. This deck could
provide some MVFR conditions late this morning, mainly over the
mountains. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains this afternoon, but areas west of the mountains
will be dry with VFR conditions.

VFR conditions can be expected areawide Sunday evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation early this morning
could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY
SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL
INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 05/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in fog possible overnight Sunday night into early Monday
morning, mainly in the mountain valleys.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY