Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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494 FXUS61 KRLX 300619 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 219 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Thursday... Isolated showers, mainly lingering over the northeast mountains, should fade early this morning. Valley fog has started to develop in the lowlands and should expend in coverage before dawn, while stratus persists along the mountains. Both fog and stratus are then expected to erode after sunrise. While an upper trough remains stationed overhead today, dry air will be introduced to the lower levels as high pressure expands into the Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. The passage of another shortwave could bring a few clouds during the latter half of the day, though high pressure is expected to maintain control at the surface and supply dry, tranquil conditions into the night. Temperatures should remain on the cooler side of normal, with daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains. Lows for tonight are expected to turn chilly and are likely to range from low to mid 40s in the lowlands to mid 30s to low 40s along the mountains. Patchy frost could even form across portions of the northeast mountains early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Upper level troughing over the east coast with high pressure at the surface will yield quiet conditions heading into the weekend. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher elevations. With dry low levels with dew points in the low 30s in the mountains, better protected mountain valleys could see some frost heading into Friday morning with cold air drainage. Otherwise minimal weather concerns are expected. Ridging translating east into the Middle Ohio Valley during the day Friday will signal a return to warmer and more humid conditions for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid- level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday yielding some efficient rain makers. Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime as precipitable water values briefly decrease under weak northwesterly flow. Couldn`t rule out some diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, but coverage will likely be fairly sparse Monday. Moisture increases again amid continuing weak flow Tuesday into Wednesday. This yielding better chances of mainly diurnally driven convection, although a weak trough approaching Tuesday evening may help to focus convection. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM Thursday... Isolated showers in the northeast mountains should fade early in the TAF period, while while stratus is expected to linger through the early morning hours. Meanwhile, valley fog has begun to develop to the west of the mountains and is expected to expand in coverage before daybreak. Sub-VFR ceilings will occur within stratus, while fog is likely to impair both ceilings and visibility. A general improvement to VFR should occur once fog and stratus erode later this morning, then high pressure brings VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF period. Calm to light winds persist through the early morning, then 5-12kt northwesterly flow is expected through the day. Occasional gusts into the teens could also be possible along the mountains during the afternoon. After 00Z, winds become calm to light once again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent, timing, and intensity of fog and low stratus tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/30/24 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JLB