494
FXUS61 KRLX 300619
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
219 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers, mainly lingering over the northeast mountains,
should fade early this morning. Valley fog has started to
develop in the lowlands and should expend in coverage before
dawn, while stratus persists along the mountains. Both fog and
stratus are then expected to erode after sunrise.

While an upper trough remains stationed overhead today, dry air will
be introduced to the lower levels as high pressure expands into the
Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. The passage of another
shortwave could bring a few clouds during the latter half of the
day, though high pressure is expected to maintain control at the
surface and supply dry, tranquil conditions into the night.

Temperatures should remain on the cooler side of normal, with
daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands and
mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains. Lows for tonight are expected
to turn chilly and are likely to range from low to mid 40s in the
lowlands to mid 30s to low 40s along the mountains. Patchy frost
could even form across portions of the northeast mountains early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Upper level troughing over the east coast with high pressure at the
surface will yield quiet conditions heading into the weekend. Overnight
lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the
lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher
elevations. With dry low levels with dew points in the low 30s
in the mountains, better protected mountain valleys could see
some frost heading into Friday morning with cold air drainage.
Otherwise minimal weather concerns are expected. Ridging
translating east into the Middle Ohio Valley during the day
Friday will signal a return to warmer and more humid conditions
for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as
southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging
from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing
for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will
provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid-
level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional
instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday
yielding some efficient rain makers.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime
as precipitable water values briefly decrease under weak
northwesterly flow. Couldn`t rule out some diurnally favored showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, but coverage will likely be
fairly sparse Monday.

Moisture increases again amid continuing weak flow Tuesday into
Wednesday. This yielding better chances of mainly diurnally driven
convection, although a weak trough approaching Tuesday evening may
help to focus convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers in the northeast mountains should fade early in
the TAF period, while while stratus is expected to linger
through the early morning hours. Meanwhile, valley fog has
begun to develop to the west of the mountains and is expected
to expand in coverage before daybreak. Sub-VFR ceilings will
occur within stratus, while fog is likely to impair both
ceilings and visibility. A general improvement to VFR should
occur once fog and stratus erode later this morning, then high
pressure brings VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF period.

Calm to light winds persist through the early morning, then
5-12kt northwesterly flow is expected through the day.
Occasional gusts into the teens could also be possible along the
mountains during the afternoon. After 00Z, winds become calm to
light once again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent, timing, and intensity of fog and
low stratus tonight may vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 05/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JLB