198
FXUS61 KRLX 270535
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
135 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Memorial Day in response to a cold
front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours
will be possible. Remaining unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1147 PM Sunday...

Sent a quick update to issue a Tornado Watch for Carter and
Lawrence counties in Kentucky, and Dickenson county in
southwest Virginia until 6 AM. The rest of the area remains
under a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms through 8 AM Monday
morning.

In addition, adjusted hourly temperatures, PoPs and Wx grids per
latest surface observations and timing of line of convection
expected to hit the Tri-state area (OH/KY/WV) around 06Z (2 AM).
The line is expected to break up in segments, but strongest
storms would survive and affect the southern portions of WV, NE
KY and southwest VA overnight tonight.

As of 840 PM Monday...

Bowing line of thunderstorms raked across the area with almost
every inch of RLX soil warned on at some point. It appears all
warnings verified or will be verified. The line was just
exiting, with a lull in precipitation on tap for the rest of
the evening. All of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been
canceled. Increasing low level flow should limit though not
entirely prohibit post-rain fog formation tonight.

The next mid-upper level short wave trough, this one associated
with a more pronounced surface cold front, sweeps through
overnight and early Monday morning, with another stout, likely
bowing line of showers and thunderstorms. This one will have
less CAPE but increased bulk shear through nearly all levels,
including low level helicity sufficient to support rotation in
stronger cells.

As of 250 PM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Bowing line of thunderstorms arriving soon to the western
   flank of the forecast area this afternoon.

 * Strong to severe thunderstorms possible with potential for
   damaging wind gusts, large hail, and brief spin up tornadoes.

 * Heavy downpours associated with convection may produce
   localized flash flooding.

What was a beautiful and quiet morning around the Central
Appalachians has quickly grown active as we await a bowing
convective segment encroaching on eastern Kentucky and Ohio and
the time of writing. This line of storms has had history of
producing very strong winds on the upwards of 60+ mph gusts
throughout the morning and early afternoon upstream in the
Tennessee Valley, with a few spin up tornadoes noted by
neighboring offices currently facing the southern end of this
system. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is already in place for the
vast majority of the forecast area this afternoon as we monitor
storms dashing across the region.

Mesoanalysis depicts storms have outran the favorable sheared
environment that was present earlier today in western and
central Kentucky, denoting more of a wind threat now, but still
would not rule out quick QLCS tornadoes that become embedded in
the descending notch. Warm and muggy conditions here in our
forecast area will aid in sustaining storms as they travel into
West Virginia and perhaps up into the northeastern mountains.

In addition to the potential for winds, hail, and tornadoes,
there will be the increasing concern for heavy downpours as
convection ventures overhead. With PWATs projected to rise to
around 1.5-1.8 inches today and tall, skinny CAPE profiles
denoted by forecast soundings, it is certainly not out of the
question to observe rainfall rates on the upwards of 1-2 inches
per hour. This would impede on recovering ground conditions from
antecedent rain and lead to flash flooding concerns.

Convective trends this afternoon and evening will be the
catalyst for how overnight activity will fare. Hi-res guidance
for this afternoon suggests a secondary line of showers and
storms forming upstream that will maintain active weather for
the overnight period. This could become primarily outflow driven
and take a southward trajectory away from the Ohio River Valley
tonight, but held onto likely POPs once again crossing the CWA
overnight into early Monday morning. However, this first line of
convection could overwork our environment and impose less of a
severe threat late tonight. Regardless, rain and flooding
concerns stretch into the overnight hours, especially in the
event of training.

Unsettled weather triumphs into Memorial Day as a low pressure
system and its attendant cold front drift further eastward.
While a break in activity seems plausible during the morning
hours Monday, isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms
return to the forecast once more for the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Monday, but dew
points remain well into the 60s, leading to another muggy day
across the area. The cold front will continue eastward progress
through the region at the conclusion of the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1137 AM Sunday...

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
Tuesday and Wednesday with shortwave energy flowing around the base
of a 500-mb trough. Areas with the best chance at seeing showers
will be in northern parts of the area and in the mountains. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time.

For both Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be a bit lower
than recent days with highs only in the 70s in the lowlands and the
upper 60s to 70s in the mountains. Wednesday night might even feel
chilly to some with temperatures dropping into the 40s and lower 50s
for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1137 AM Sunday...

The long term forecast period looks largely dry with high pressure
building into the region from the west. Temperatures will remain
comfortably cool Thursday and Friday with highs in the 70s for most.
The summer-like warmth will return next weekend as high pressure
slides east and southerly flow returns. There is a slight
chance of showers or thunderstorms Saturday with 500-mb
shortwave energy approaching from the west, but confidence is
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 132 AM Monday...

A line of convection will affect HTS and PKB by 06-08Z,
spreading east affecting CRW by 08-10Z with heavy rain, and
strong gusty winds. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected
along this activity through the overnight hours. Precipitation
behind the convective line becomes more stratiformed but steady.
MVFR/IFR ceilings could remains behind this line through 12Z
Monday morning. Models suggest a lull in precipitation Monday
morning into the early afternoon hours. But, unstable
conditions, and the passage of an upper level wave will bring
back showers and storms during the peak heating hours.

Guidance suggest LLWS developing from 08Z through 12Z overnight
tonight. Coded LLWS at most sites accordingly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms at determined
sites may vary by an hour at HTS, PKB and CRW. Amendments will
likely be needed later for weather restrictions, overnight into
early Monday morning, and then again Monday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        MON 05/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ