874
FXUS61 KRLX 110522
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
122 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures
expected for the end of the week. Chance for showers and
isolated storms on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

A quiet pattern is expected through near term as high pressure
slowly slides east. The main concern this morning will be any fog
formation where the low level cloud deck can manage to clear as
surface winds drop to near zero, coverage should be patchy at best.
Generally think this will be limited to the northwestern half of the
forecast area and perhaps some more fog prone river valleys across
the south.

Tonight, as high pressure moves even closer overhead, should see
some better chances for more widespread valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

High pressure keeps the weather dry through Thursday. Warming
trend starts Wednesday with highs projected to be in the 70s and
80s for most. Thursday showcases even warmer temperatures in
the upper 80s and lower 90s for the lowlands; mid 70s to mid 80s
across the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...

The long-term period looks rather sultry and muggy as the work
week closes up and the weekend opens store. High pressure will
remain nearby Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday will be
hot with upper 80s and low 90s expected across the lowlands. The
mountains will see mid 70s to the upper 80s.

A weak cold front will move through during the late afternoon
and evening allowing for chances of some showers or an isolated
thunderstorm, but this will mostly be confined to the northern
lowlands and mountains as a surface low looks to form along the
front.

High pressure will swiftly move in behind the front Saturday
paired with warm moist flow from the Gulf to reinforce hot and
humid conditions. Temperatures on Sunday are currently projected
by blended guidance to be in the mid to upper 90s for the
lowlands. Other model guidance also predicts similar outcomes.

A stationary front will approach from the south Sunday and then
move overhead on Monday. That said, kept chance PoPs across the
southern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

BKN-OVC 025-035 ceilings slowly work their way southeast this
morning. Clearing in their wake coupled with light winds could yield
some patchy valley fog, especially near CKB/EKN/CRW this morning.
Any fog that does form mixes out through 13Z. Skies progressively
clear through the day.

Winds remain light, favoring a northerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog may vary from
the forecast this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 06/11/24
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Valley fog possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JP